Cable: Could it break the handle: 1.4660: Two month high ?

2016年5月1日

Payrolls and UK PMI construction are main data we should pay attention to trade GBPUSD this week.

The fact is UK economy performed very bad in April and the rally of Cable last week totally came from the USDollar factor not because good UK data.

According to my data connection, UK PMI Construction should be negative.

But I also have a negative view for US Nonfarm payrolls on Friday.

- Markit PMI + Consumer Confidence + Reuter/Michigan Consumer Sentiment : All couldn't beat the forecast in April .

Hence, most likely Payrolls can't beat the forecast and printed below 200k.

We see US economic data in April totaly was a nightmare and obviously US GDP (Q1) dropped to 0.5%

FED definitely was right to hold rate and the chance for rate hike in June is nearly zero.

SELL Dollar is a good option.

We see GBPUSD currently stops at 1.4660 handle. A strong resistance level: two month high.

An official break 1.4660 handle will send GBPUSD higher to next strong resistance level SMA200 1.4900

However, I'm not surprised if it pulls back from the handle.

To choose bwt LONG or SHORT.

I choose LONG GBPUSD to 1.49000

This is my final view.