GBPUSD | Perspective for the new week | Follow-up

已更新

Market participants are eagerly awaiting fresh guidance on Bank of England (BoE) interest rates as uncertainty lingers over the timing of potential rate cuts. Speculation suggests the central bank might consider reducing interest rates in the early part of the second half of the year, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the June policy meeting currently below 50% and a dovish decision for August appearing increasingly probable.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey anticipates price pressures to ease towards the 2% target in spring before resuming an upward trajectory. This could pave the way for the BoE to contemplate a significant unwinding of its historically tight monetary policy stance. Recent UK data indicates an improving economic outlook, suggesting that the technical recession experienced in the latter half of last year may have come to an end. Despite these positive developments, the Pound's performance remains subdued relative to expectations given the better UK data and strong risk appetite.

On the other hand, the US Dollar has stabilized following a recovery amidst tightening labor market conditions. Initial jobless claims for the week ending February 16 came in lower than anticipated at 201K, compared to expectations of 218,000 and the previous reading of 213,000. Additionally, Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers emphasize the need for further evidence to support the expectation of inflation declining towards the 2% target.

GBPUSD Technical Analysis:
Will the pound continue its trajectory and sustain its momentum above the $1.27200 zone? The stakes are high, and we're on the edge of our seats!

The spotlight is on high-impact economic events from the US docket for clues. Brace yourselves as the anticipation and the actual events may trigger sharp price movements that could present incredible trading opportunities.

In this video, we've analyzed the Daily and 4-hour timeframes, exploring bullish and bearish sentiments to uncover the most promising trades for the week ahead. We've delved into key levels, trendlines, and support/resistance points, unveiling essential insights into the current market structure.

We are keeping a close eye on the potential range between $1.26150 and $1.28200 where a breakdown or breakdown could incite the next BIG move. It's a decisive structure where both sellers and buyers will be vying for control, and how the market reacts here will set the course for GBPUSD in the upcoming days.

Stay connected and join the conversation in the comment section to stay updated on the latest developments. Thank you for tuning in, and get ready for more enlightening insights into GBPUSD in our upcoming content. Buckle up for a thrilling journey ahead! Happy trading!

Disclaimer Notice:
Please be aware that margin trading in the foreign exchange market, including commodity trading, CFDs, stocks, and other instruments, carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. The content of this speculative material, including all data, is provided by me for educational purposes only and to assist in making independent investment decisions. All information presented here is for reference purposes only, and I do not assume any responsibility for its accuracy.

It is important that you carefully evaluate your investment experience, financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance level. Before making any investment, it is advisable to consult with your independent financial advisor to assess the suitability of your circumstances.

Please note that I cannot guarantee the accuracy of the information provided, and I am not liable for any loss or damage that may directly or indirectly result from the content or the receipt of any instructions or notifications associated with it.

Remember that past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Keep this in mind while considering any investment opportunities.

注释

The US Dollar continues to hold its ground against the Pound Sterling, driven by optimistic comments from Federal Reserve officials. This has caused the GBP/USD pair to weaken. Additionally, lower consumer confidence data from the UK for February may have added to the downward pressure on the Pound. However, recent UK PMI data indicates signs of improvement, suggesting that the economic downturn experienced last year might be ending. With global risk sentiment improving, the Bank of England is likely to maintain a cautious approach regarding its interest rate decisions.

Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials have proposed delaying any potential rate cuts for a few more months to assess whether January's high inflation report was just a one-off event. As we monitor these developments, we'll be using the newly identified market structure on the 1-hour timeframe to gauge how market participants are going to react to the recent developments from both economies as key economic features from the US draw near.

Good Morning

注释

#GBPUSD

UPDATE

交易手动结束

#GBPUSD

Close buy positions as selling pressure resumes. The newly identified ascending trendline becomes our guiding light going forward.

交易开始

The sell position initiated yesterday is facing challenges as GBP/USD remains confined within a range below 1.2700. A subdued US Dollar and cautious market sentiment are fueling a battle between bulls and bears, with traders eagerly anticipating today's speeches from both the Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve policymakers for market direction.

The recently released FOMC minutes revealed the Fed's commitment to a data-driven approach, resulting in a more dovish stance that exerts downward pressure on the US Dollar, thereby providing support to the GBP/USD pair.

Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers hinted at the possibility of delaying rate cuts during last week's discussions, a factor believed to have bolstered the Pound Sterling's value and established structural higher lows on the chart since the week began. In this regard, our trading activity today will be guided by the newly identified ascending trendline on the 1-hour timeframe.

Good Morning

交易开始

UPDATE

Protect the sell position as price action breaks down the ascending trendline identified this morning

交易开始

With three sell positions active and running with approximately 45 pips in profit, the US Dollar is strengthening its recovery amidst a cautious market sentiment. Market participants appear to be showing reluctance towards risk-sensitive assets like the Pound Sterling as they await today's crucial US data. Despite the disappointing US Durable Goods Orders report on Tuesday, market players seem confident that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will hold off on interest rate cuts until the June policy meeting. This renewed faith in the USD is driving demand and putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The downward trend remains unaffected by the recent hawkish comments from Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden, who expressed the need for more evidence of easing inflationary pressures before considering rate cuts. A decisive break below the week's key level at 1.26500 could pave the way for further decline, prompting us to stay alert for potential opportunities. In the meantime, it is essential to safeguard all sell positions.

Good Morning

交易开始

Price action continues to oscillate within the supply window identified yesterday as there is renewed demand for the US Dollar (USD) ahead of the US January Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE). Although the GBP/USD rebounded, it lacked substantial follow-through buying during the Asian session. This recent consolidation suggests that bears are awaiting cues from the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index before initiating fresh directional positions. Expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period due to persistent inflation and a resilient US economy are likely to bolster the US Dollar. Furthermore, a slight deterioration in global risk sentiment is anticipated to favor the US Dollar and constrain gains for the GBP/USD pair.

In addition to the pivotal US inflation data, the US economic calendar includes the release of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales. These, coupled with remarks from Fed officials, are poised to impact USD demand significantly, as there are no notable market-moving economic releases scheduled from the UK today. Therefore, the levels identified on the chart will serve as our guiding light for today's trading activities.

Good Morning

交易手动结束

All sell positions closed as the Core PCE inflation rose 0.4% in January - giving the Pound Sterling room to build on. The levels identified on the chart this morning remain our guiding light.

交易开始

Amidst market fluctuations, the Pound Sterling has been navigating a downward trend, breaching the week's key level at 1.26500 level with at least two sell positions active and running. However, amidst this downward trend, GBP/USD is displaying marginal gains above the 1.26220 mark, propelled by a weakened US Dollar amid prevailing risk-on sentiments. This sentiment prevails ahead of significant events such as the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and the Fed's Monetary Policy Report.

Thursday's release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index highlighted the lowest annual inflation rate in three years, reinforcing market expectations of a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the future.

However, the British Pound may find support from the Bank of England (BoE) policymakers' efforts to resist market speculations regarding early interest rate cuts. This stance opens up the possibility of an upward trajectory for the GBP/USD pair. In this regard, it's advisable to safeguard all sell positions, utilizing the identified levels on the chart as reference points to navigate today's trading activities effectively.

Happy new month!