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GBPUSD Bullish on Hot UK Inflation

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GBPUSD

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Strategy Bullish
The British pound held firm around $1.28, staying close to its peak of $1.2848 recorded in June 16th, as hotter-than-expected inflation numbers raised anticipation among investors that the Bank of England would respond to the persistent inflationary pressures by implementing further interest rate hikes. In May, the headline inflation rate remained unchanged at 8.7%, slightly above the projected 8.4% and surpassing the policymakers' target of 2%. Additionally, the core inflation rate accelerated to 7.1%, reaching its highest level since March 1992. The Bank of England will likely deliver a 13th consecutive interest rate hike on Thursday, bringing borrowing costs to fresh 15-year highs. Markets now price another 150 basis points of hiking for a peak at 6%.

GBPUSD broke resistance zone 1.2464and closed above 1.2697

GBPUSD made since March14th2023 2consequent HH AND HL. The next HL must close above 1.2382
otherwise the market structrue will not be valid anymore and the danger of bearish structure will be created.

If the bullish market structure continues then 2 bullish scenarios are potentially possibel(See green arrows

Trendomat and Buy Sell pressure are green what indicates continuation of the bullish trend

$1.29 in the Hands of UK Inflation and Powell

With the Bank of England set to deliver its June interest rate decision on Thursday, today’s inflation numbers will materially influence the Bank’s outlook on inflation, the UK economy, and monetary policy.
To date, inflation has remained sticky. With a more resilient-than-expected UK economy, the markets expect a hawkish 25 basis-point interest rate hike. An annual inflation rate below 8% could support a BoE pause after the summer.
Economists forecast the UK annual inflation rate to soften from 8.7% to 8.4% in May. Investors will need to look beyond the headline figure, with food price inflation and core inflation needing consideration.
However, wage growth remains a bugbear that would also need to slow to give the doves more voice.
With inflation in the spotlight, investors should track Bank of England commentary for clues on monetary policy and the economic outlook. However, no Monetary Policy Committee members on the calendar to speak, leaving chatter with the media to move the dial.

Looking at the EMAs and the 4-hourly chart, the EMAs sent bullish signals. The GBP/USD sat above the 50-day EMA, currently at $1.26889. The 50-day EMA pulled further away from the 200-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA widening from the 200-day EMA, delivering bullish signals.
A hold above the S1 ($1.2716) and the 50-day EMA ($1.26899) would support a breakout from R1 ($1.2810) to target R2 ($1.2855). However, a fall through S1 ($1.21716) and the 50-day EMA ($1.20097) which is on the same time the Monthly average price would bring S2 ($1.19885) into view. A fall through the 50-day EMA would send a bearish signal.

Resistance & Support Levels
R1 – $
1.2810
S1 – $
1.21716
R2 – $
1.2855
S2 – $
1.19885
R3 – $
1.2948
S3 – $
1.16547
A breakout from the Tuesday high of $1.28067 would signal an extended breakout session. However, the Pound would need the UK inflation numbers and Fed Chair Powell to support a bullish session.
In the event of an extended rally, the GBP/USD would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $1.2855 and resistance at $1.29. The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $1.2948.
Failure to move through the pivot would leave the First Major Support Level (S1) at $1.2716 in play. However, barring a UK inflation-fueled sell-off, the GBP/USD should avoid sub-$1.2650. The Second Major Support Level (S2) at $1.2668 should limit the downside. The Third Major Support Level (S3) sits at $1.2575.

注释

Looking ahead to the US session, it is another quiet day on the US economic calendar. There are no US economic indicators to influence. The lack of economic indicators will leave Fed Chair Powell and FOMC member commentary to move the dial.

Fed Chair Powell will give the first day of testimony. While the FOMC press conference was only last week, investors should look for any deviation from the FOMC press conference script.

The anticipation of Fed Chair Powell’s testimony on interest rate expectations was telling. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25-basis point July rate hike stood at 76.9% on Tuesday versus 74.4% on Friday. The chances of the Fed lifting the Fed Funds Rate to 5.75% in September increased from 8.9% to 11.5%.

注释

Fed Chair. Powell reiterated at the ECB Forum on Central Banking that interest rates will rise further and that he wouldn’t take moving in consecutive meetings off the table at all, but noted that a recession in the US is not the most likely case. Nvidia was down by over 2% and Advanced Micro Devices by 1% after the Wall Street Journal reported that the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of artificial intelligence chips to China. The Fed is also due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks, and more details on Basel III Endgame and changes to bank supervision will be in the spotlight.
The Dow Jones was down over 100 points and the S&P 500 dipped by 0.1% on Wednesday afternoon, on the prospect of further interest rate hikes following the Federal Reserve's chair Powell Speech at the ECB Forum. He said he does not see inflation reaching the Fed's 2% target any time soon. He reiterated that interest rates will rise further and did not rule out a boost in the cost of borrowing at the next policy meeting scheduled for the end of July. Meantime, the Nasdaq was up 0.2% powered by megacap momentum stocks. Among stocks, shares of Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were down by 2% and 1%, respectively, after the US government is considering new restrictions on exports of AI chips to China. Intel, Applied Materials and Qualcomm fell more than 2% each. On the other hand, Apple hit an all-time high of $189.8 during the session, while shares of Tesla and Alphabet advanced 1.4% and 2.5%. The Fed is due to release the results of its annual stress tests to banks.

注释

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Down for 2nd Session

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note fell below 4%, retreating for the second consecutive session after hitting its highest since November 2022 at almost 4.1% as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate policy moves. The CPI report on Wednesday is expected to show headline annual inflation fell to 3.1% in June from 4% in the previous month, while the core index probably decreased to 5% from 5.3%. Markets are now pricing in a 94.9% chance of rates being hiked again during the central bank’s upcoming meeting on July 25-26 but uncertainty remains for the other three Fed meetings scheduled for later in the year. In the latest Fed commentary, Fed President Mary Daly said that she expects two further rate hikes to be announced this year to lower inflation, in line with early comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.

Americans Become More Pessimistic in July
The IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index in the US unexpectedly fell to 41.3 in July 2023, the lowest since November last year, compared to 41.7 in June and market forecasts of 45.3. It also marks a 23rd month the reading stands below 50, indicating Americans remain pessimistic. “The economy continues to be the number one issue for Americans as we prepare for earnings season and new inflation data. The Six-Month Economic Outlook was the lone bright spot for July, as optimism slightly increased for the long-term, but it’s still a long way from positive. Expect some more twists and turns before consumers trust that the economy has stabilized”, said Ed Carson, IBD's news editor. The Personal Financial Outlook, a measure of how Americans feel about their own finances in the next six months, fell to 50 from 51.9 and the gauge for Confidence in Federal Economic Policies edged lower to 38.5 from 38.6. On the other hand, the Six-Month Economic Outlook rose to 35.5 from 34.5.

注释

Wall Street Extends Gain Ahead of CPI Data
US stocks closed higher on Tuesday, extending gains for the second session, as investors looked forward to the key inflation report due tomorrow. The Dow Jones finished over 316 points higher, as Salesforce rose 3.9% after the company announced it will be increasing list prices an average of 9% in August. 3M and Boeing were also among the top performers and advanced by 4.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The S&P 500 gained nearly 0.7%, led by the energy sector as APA (+6.3%), Halliburton (+4.2%) and Schlumberger (+4.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq added 0.5%. Traders were also digesting comments from several Fed officials which continued to point to the need of further tightening this year. The odds for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this year currently stand at 95%, but investors remain divided about another rate hike. The economic calendar is soft today and the earnings season kicks off later in the week.

注释

Dollar Index Hits 14-month Low

DXY decreased to a 14-month low of 100.61

Wall Street Rallies after Softer Inflation
US stocks surged on Wednesday after both headline and core inflation fell more than expected in June, reinforcing the view the Federal Reserve may stop the tightening campaign sooner than expected. The Dow Jones gained around 250 points to 34548, the highest level since November last year, with 3M and Goldman Sachs up nearly 2% and among the top performers. The S&P 500 added 0.9% 4477, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and real estate sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2% to 13906, also the highest since April last year. Traders are currently pricing in a 92% chance for a 25bps increase in the fed funds rate this month, while the odds for another quarter-point hike in September fell to 13% from 20% before the CPI release and in November eased to 26% from 34%.

Brazil Business Morale Rises to 8-Month High
The Industrial Entrepreneur Confidence Index (ICEI) in Brazil rose by 0.7 points from the previous month to an eight-month high of 51.1 in July of 2023. This marks the second consecutive month in which the industry has shown confidence, attributed primarily to a more positive evaluation of the current economic conditions (+1.3 points to 45.5). Also, the indicator of future expectations increased (+0.4 points to 53.9), indicating optimism for the next six months.
FTSE MIB Close Rise to 15-Year High
The FTSE MIB index closed 1.8% higher at 28,573 on Wednesday, outperforming other benchmark European indices amid sharp gains for its heavyweight financial sector as markets digested the soft US inflation print. American consumer prices rose by 3% annually in June, below estimates of 3.1%, benefitting from a slowdown in core consumer prices. The development lifted equities amid hopes that the Fed will be able to ease its hawkish pressure. Banks were among the sharpest gainers as BTP yields fell by 15bps, aiding their balance sheet with Banca MPS and Banco BPM both adding more than 2%. In the meantime, STMicroelectronics shares surged 4.8% amid recommendation updates from Jeffries and Citigroup.

注释

US Stocks Pop on Cooling Inflation
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.
All major US stocks indexes were trading in the green on Wednesday afternoon as June CPI data came cooler-than-expected, raising hopes that Fed officials might rethink their stance on more rate hikes. The Dow Jones was up more than 100 points after reaching the highest level since November earlier in the session, as Salesforce, Goldman Sachs and Home Depot outperformed, adding nearly 2% each. The S&P 500 gained 0.8%, a level not seen since April of 2022, led by shares in the consumer discretionary, tech and basic materials sectors. The Nasdaq was up about 1.2%, also the highest since April last year. Bank stocks advanced firmly, with Citigroup and Goldman Sachs adding 2.9% and 2.5%, respectively. Also, regional banks such as Comerica(5.1%) and Zions Bancorporation (4.9%). In the news, Domino's Pizza surged over 11% after revealing its deal with Uber Eats.Japanese Yen attempting fifth consecutive daily advance (first time since December)
USD/JPY plunge now approaching major support confluence- risk for price inflection
Resistance 140.10s, 140.93, 142.10/50 (key)- support 137.36/91, 136.15, 134.04
The Japanese Yen has continued to coil just below uptrend resistance with major event risk on tap into the close of the week. The focus is on a breakout of the monthly opening-range for guidance. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the USD/JPY short-term technical charts.
Initial resistance now eyed at the 75% parallel (blue slope currently ~140.10s) backed by the objective May high at 140.93. Ultimately, a breach / close above the weekly open / 61.8% retracement of the 2022 decline at 142.10/50 would be needed to mark resumption of the broader USD/JPY uptrend.

Bottom line: The USD/JPY plunge us approaching the first major technical support hurdle just below the 138-handle. From at trading standpoint, look to reduce portions of short-exposure / lower protective stops on a stretch towards this key support zone – rallies should be limited to the weekly open IF price is heading lower on this stretch. I’ll publish an updated Japanese Yen Weekly Forecast once we get further clarity on the longer-term USD/JPY technical trade levels.

注释

Asian Stocks Mostly Rise on Easing US Inflation

Asian equity markets mostly rose on Friday, tracking gains on Wall Street overnight as data showing US producer prices rose less than expected in June bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve is close to the end of its rate-hiking cycle. The US central bank is still seen raising rates by 25 basis points in July, while traders scaled back bets of further rate increases this year. Meanwhile, Singapore’s economy grew 0.7% year-on-year in the second quarter, avoiding a technical recession. The S&P/ASX 200, Nikkei 225, Kospi, Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite indexes advanced, while the Topix and Shenzhen Component indexes declined.

注释

The greenback is approaching a make-or-break moment — at least as far as a closely watched technical indicator is concerned.

The Bloomberg Dollar Index has now surrendered more than 61.8% of its gains since May 2021, bringing it to one of the Fibonacci retracement levels popular among chart watchers. They tend to keep a close eye on these indicators to determine whether or not trends will extend or reverse.

What happens next is therefore crucial.

If the index remains below this point over the coming sessions, it would be a strong signal to traders that the currency’s losses are the beginning of a new longer-term downtrend, and not just an aberration.

The latest bout of weakness comes as the market now sees an end to a tightening spree that Federal Reserve officials begun communicating more than two years ago. The prospect is narrowing interest-rate differentials with other major currencies and weighing on the dollar.

This week, it dropped to the weakest level against euro and pound since early 2022. It’s even falling out of favor against the yen — where rates are still negative — with the cross falling to a two-month low.

The bearish signal seen in the chart of the Bloomberg Dollar Index could be soon validated elsewhere too. The ICE Dollar Index — a popular alternative to the BBDXY — stands just 0.6% higher than the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of a rally that kicked off in January 2021.

To be sure, options paint a more mixed picture. While long-term bets are supportive of the US currency’s prospects, sentiment over a one-month sentiment has reached its least bullish level since September 2020.

注释

USDJPY BULLISH WILL Go to 180 Yen
LONG
the Bank of Japan is unlikely to increase its ultra-loose policy rate until Governor Kuroda's term expires in the first quarter of 2023.

A break below 124is the start of bearish trend.

Technical: BULLISH
STRATEGY
BUY THE CORRECTION
Higher Highs
Higher Lows

Fundamentals:

See my previouse USDJPY trade ideas.All Tades are active, and a lot of fundamental explanations of USDJPY. Read them.Undestand them,then you can mae good trades.

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注释

Week Ahead - July 17th

Next week, investors will focus on the earnings results from major US companies, such as Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, IBM, Netflix, Tesla, and Johnson & Johnson. Additionally, it will be interesting to monitor retail sales, industrial production, and housing data, including existing home sales, housing starts, and building permits. In other news, China is set to release Q2 GDP growth, retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investments. Markets will also be attentive to inflation rates in the United Kingdom, Canada, Japan, New Zealand, and South Africa. Furthermore, the central banks of Turkey and South Africa will make decisions regarding monetary policy, Australia will publish the unemployment rate, and the UK and Canada will release retail sales data.

注释

trade is open