Fakeout through 1.25?
GBP/USD:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Early February 2018 saw the pair reject 1.4520/1.3893, a 50.0% retracement and 38.2% Fib retracement combination (red). This, along with trendline resistance (2.1161), remains a well-rounded resistance area to keep an eye on long term.
In recent months, a recovery formed off 1.1904/1.2235, clocking highs of 1.3514 in December 2019 and breaking the 1.3380 March 2019 high. The month of February declined nearly 3.00%, with March currently extending losses, poised to reconnect with 1.1904/1.2235.
Daily timeframe:
Demand at 1.2649/1.2799 and the 200-day SMA gave way Thursday in strong fashion, shedding nearly 2.00%. A 127.2% Fib ext. point at 1.2509 nudged into view, located a few points above another layer of demand at 1.2404/1.2470.
In terms of the RSI indicator, we can see the value dipped through 50.00 and is headed for oversold territory.
H4 timeframe:
After tunnelling through a number of key demand areas, H4 price hovers above daily demand mentioned at 1.2404/1.2470. To the upside, however, we can see a demand-turned supply at 1.2696/1.2602, with a break exposing notable supply at 1.2768/1.2813.
H1 timeframe:
1.25 made an appearance in the early hours of US trade Thursday, providing fresh impetus to GBP/USD. Failing to sustain gains north of 1.26, the pair once again found itself under significant pressure, with 1.25 likely to be retested today. With the possibility of a break lower being seen, traders may want to note demand at 1.2405/1.2460, essentially offering pretty much the same range as daily demand mentioned above at 1.2404/1.2470.
Additional resistance seen on this timeframe is channel support-turned resistance (1.2865). Also worthy of note is the RSI attempting to regain footing within oversold levels and the 100-period SMA drifting south.
Structures of Interest:
Daily demand at 1.2404/1.2470, along with H1 demand at 1.2405/1.2460, and RSI indicators on both daily and H1 timeframes showing oversold conditions, opens the door to a possible fakeout scenario. A whipsaw through 1.25 today would likely fill sell stops (providing liquidity to buy into) and draw in buyers from the said demand areas. This, coupled with a H1 close back above 1.25 today, might be sufficient enough to encourage an approach to 1.26.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Early February 2018 saw the pair reject 1.4520/1.3893, a 50.0% retracement and 38.2% Fib retracement combination (red). This, along with trendline resistance (2.1161), remains a well-rounded resistance area to keep an eye on long term.
In recent months, a recovery formed off 1.1904/1.2235, clocking highs of 1.3514 in December 2019 and breaking the 1.3380 March 2019 high. The month of February declined nearly 3.00%, with March currently extending losses, poised to reconnect with 1.1904/1.2235.
Daily timeframe:
Demand at 1.2649/1.2799 and the 200-day SMA gave way Thursday in strong fashion, shedding nearly 2.00%. A 127.2% Fib ext. point at 1.2509 nudged into view, located a few points above another layer of demand at 1.2404/1.2470.
In terms of the RSI indicator, we can see the value dipped through 50.00 and is headed for oversold territory.
H4 timeframe:
After tunnelling through a number of key demand areas, H4 price hovers above daily demand mentioned at 1.2404/1.2470. To the upside, however, we can see a demand-turned supply at 1.2696/1.2602, with a break exposing notable supply at 1.2768/1.2813.
H1 timeframe:
1.25 made an appearance in the early hours of US trade Thursday, providing fresh impetus to GBP/USD. Failing to sustain gains north of 1.26, the pair once again found itself under significant pressure, with 1.25 likely to be retested today. With the possibility of a break lower being seen, traders may want to note demand at 1.2405/1.2460, essentially offering pretty much the same range as daily demand mentioned above at 1.2404/1.2470.
Additional resistance seen on this timeframe is channel support-turned resistance (1.2865). Also worthy of note is the RSI attempting to regain footing within oversold levels and the 100-period SMA drifting south.
Structures of Interest:
Daily demand at 1.2404/1.2470, along with H1 demand at 1.2405/1.2460, and RSI indicators on both daily and H1 timeframes showing oversold conditions, opens the door to a possible fakeout scenario. A whipsaw through 1.25 today would likely fill sell stops (providing liquidity to buy into) and draw in buyers from the said demand areas. This, coupled with a H1 close back above 1.25 today, might be sufficient enough to encourage an approach to 1.26.
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