5/30/24 - $gco - g(tf)o on this valuation and setup. short.
5/30/24 - vrockstar -
GCO
- as hard as i try not to convince myself to short stuff and trust me THE BAR IS HIGH - this is a possible candidate.
1. brands are not A tier, this isn't crox, onon, birk, lulu etc.
2. chart is trash
3. capital stack is trash 65% of enterprise value is debt - toxic factor in rising rates
4. meager cash generation, a lot of it goes to debt service anyway
5. EVEN say they get to $2 of EPS in 2-3 yrs (as the donkey crowd somehow believes in their models), and adjust the $27/share price by debt assuming it's 50% of the capital stack and round up - so that's the equivalent of a $60 stock. on $2 of earnings is 30x. GTFO.
thinking i'll probably attempt some P's here to protect the risk they "beat" this rips and pulls a lovesac or something like that (also a short btw - and see this as a reason why P's might still be ideal in this tape for all short plays, not outright shorting shares).
if you're a holder, i'm not going to wish you good luck as i typically do. i suggest you get off this ride sooner than later. idk what the Q brings bc its my first time sizing this up - but i can tell you in the 2-3 yr context the stock will be struggling for (probably) a two digit handle. just move it in the SPY if you're confused on what to buy at this pt.
GCO
- as hard as i try not to convince myself to short stuff and trust me THE BAR IS HIGH - this is a possible candidate. 1. brands are not A tier, this isn't crox, onon, birk, lulu etc.
2. chart is trash
3. capital stack is trash 65% of enterprise value is debt - toxic factor in rising rates
4. meager cash generation, a lot of it goes to debt service anyway
5. EVEN say they get to $2 of EPS in 2-3 yrs (as the donkey crowd somehow believes in their models), and adjust the $27/share price by debt assuming it's 50% of the capital stack and round up - so that's the equivalent of a $60 stock. on $2 of earnings is 30x. GTFO.
thinking i'll probably attempt some P's here to protect the risk they "beat" this rips and pulls a lovesac or something like that (also a short btw - and see this as a reason why P's might still be ideal in this tape for all short plays, not outright shorting shares).
if you're a holder, i'm not going to wish you good luck as i typically do. i suggest you get off this ride sooner than later. idk what the Q brings bc its my first time sizing this up - but i can tell you in the 2-3 yr context the stock will be struggling for (probably) a two digit handle. just move it in the SPY if you're confused on what to buy at this pt.