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GDXJ sharp move down

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I didn´t expect such weakness in the previous idea.

The move is being very intense, and it can continue in the same way
Before de month ends, GDXJ about 40,5$.

Then, there could be a move up to the 45$ before another push down to the 32$.
And all this could happen during the month of May.

Caution

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Possible bottom this comming wednesday (mid week) with GDXJ between 39,8$ and 39,2$.
I dont expect it to drop more than that. Then a small rise to 44$-45$ could be, and continue falling. That is what i am monitoring.
Lets see

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There is a chance, which I give a 20% probability, that GDXJ don't stop in the 39$-40$, and continues going lower to 34$. But for now, and waiting how it behaves, i bet on an intermidiate botton there.

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Gold did not fall to 1820 yet. And GDXJ held in the 42$-43$.
So, the posibility of a collapse in the sector during the coming days is there. Which means GDXJ could fall to 32$-33$ in less than 10 trading days, and gold should help, falling at least fallling to 1.780$ or even lower(1.720$).
Tomorrow with the FED we will see the path fo both.

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No changes. In fact , I am even more bear in the following weeks, till second half of June.
Caution. MIners could be collapsing. After that, there would be a good buying opportunity. But not now.

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If (when) it reaches 33,5$ or so, i would exit my short position. I think bear could continue until second half of June, but could also stop at this level and jump por a while. Lets see

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Still have to reach the 33$. Think Friday action was only to restest resistance level already broken at 37$.
This week they should fall to 33$. Also GDX (big brother) should fall to 28$ (and fill pending gaps down there).

How gold would behave? It will go down, the question is how much. Maybe 1780$ is not enought to see GDXJ at 33$ and the fall need to go deeper. Let see. TREND is strong as is down.

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Bear Trend could continue untle the second half of JUNE.
That means 33$ should not be the bottom.
I think GDXJ could reach 25$-26$ by those dates. But that would be posted in a following idea once (if) this one finally reaches its target.

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calm... toping in the retracement (50%, you can check it). And ready for another leg down, that could take the price from this level to 26-28 in two phases.

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the more I expect it could go up is to visit in a day or two the 40-41$ level again.
Then another sharp drop.
That could take (futures) gold to 186X in the first half of this coming week