Dax week 31 - Analysis

2021年8月8日

Dear Tradingviewer,

This week, I offer my analysis of the movements of GER30 during the week and my outlook for next week.
Have nice reading and be pleased to comment if you want.

First, some warnings:
Please remember that you can have losses while trading.
Thus, always trade with a trading plan.
I wanted to share this link with you:
babypips.com/trading/5-lessons-traders-learned-after-a-year-of-forex
It is a very interesting article. Moreover, you have also a complete free trading academy on this website in order to help you in managing your risk if you are interested in it.

So, what happened last week?

As anticipated, Monday was a selling day… Nevertheless, I was expecting a bigger fall. Then, the rest of the week was a constant rise pushed by the start of August. A pause occurred on Wednesday waiting for the ADP Non Farm Employment Change which was a good indicator for the rest of the week.

What did I do?

This week, I took short positions at several resistances and I am now waiting for a potential wave which I am expecting at the end of next week.

What are my perspectives for next week?

My perspective for the end of next week are also a range, I think :
- 25%: GER30 finishes the week between 15600 and 15900;
- 15%: GER30 reaches back in the range 15500 - 15600;
- 50%: GER30 falls and stay around the green line;
- 10%: GER30 falls under the green line (on the graph)


What to follow next week?

Globally (still the same):
- WARNING !! Variant Delta is spreading all around Europe, this will impact the market if the mitigation measure taken are judge not enough compare to the spreading;
- Inflation: the rise of petrol (OIL to follow accurately) and other raw material are good indicators, even if OIL fall a lot in the previous days.
- The US 10 years interest rates (which could also have an impact on NSDQ100) are currently very low but are starting a new rise;
- The transaction volumes.

Day by day :
- Monday: German Trade Balance, Europe Sentix Investor Confidence and U.S. JOLTs Job Openings;
- Tuesday: ZEW Economic sentiment (Germany and Eurozone) and US productivity and labour costs ;
- ⚠️ Wednesday ⚠️ : Inflation day in Germany and US... moreover US Crude Oil;
- Thursday: UK GDP, Eurozone Industrial Production, US initial Jobless Claim and OPEP report ;
- Friday : Trade Balance Eurozone and US Export Price Index.

I wish you a good trading week,
Please feel free to ask me questions, I will be glad to connect with you over the comments or by private messages.
Stay safe,
Alexandre