Gold remains indecisive for more than #2 sessions

2022年10月3日

Gold's general commentary: Conflicting patterns on Gold as the Hourly 4 chart calls for and is Trading near Quadruple Top’s formation, while Daily chart constitutes healthy Descending Channel which can potentially extend the Price-action as Low as the Weekly chart’s #1,633.80 Lower Low’s extension ahead of #1,600.80 psychological mark, in the same manner my main point of interest for the fractal. Daily chart has an Selling potential for an #1,652.80 first Support test if correlating instruments allow before next week’s candle (Yields are on parabolic downtrend (# -4.09%, taking strong hits). With even Weekly chart (#1W) turning Bearish marginally throughout #Q2, it is again all about how Fed will move Yield and the Price-action closing below #1,670.80 - #1,680.80 wide Resistance zone is to maintain the multi-Month Bearish trend.


Fundamental analysis: Fundamentally, it is the decline on the DX that is accumulating Gold’s Short-term Buyers (competitive instruments) as until the this week’s Fundamentals involved, Investors could see more value there and that explains one of the strongest Hourly 4 chart’s Intra-day Bullish candles. Regarding DX, it remains on a Short-term Descending Channel (struggling to make Bullish comeback), so I expect today’s session consolidation to be quickly corrected downwards towards new Low’s (piling heavy Selling pressure on Gold). I am fully Bearish on Gold regarding Short and Medium-term with Annual projection below the #1,600.80 psychological mark (fair Technical estimate), but as long as DX and Yields are Trading near current Low’s, Gold will sustain any takedown attempt. It is important to note that there are lot’s of Medium and Long-term rejection points below #1,620.80 sequence so only strong push upwards on DX (once again above #52-Week High’s) can aid Sellers intent and invalidate the #1,600.80 mark (I don’t believe that #1,600.80 mark can be invalidated without serious cause). If mentioned level breaks and market closes one Daily chart’s candle below it, #1,588.80 and #1,552.80 (February #3, #2020) Low’s will be viable Targets for Sellers to pursue. If however market closes above #1,680.80, Selling bias is postponed and Price-action may look to contact #1,692.80 pressure point.


My position: Even though I am still on Bearish side, current market sentiment offers me no firm patterns to Trade by so I will remain on sidelines (similar to the past #2 sessions). I will re-Sell Gold only if market closes the session below #1,660.80 configuration.