Sell order activated / DX on recovery candles limiting uptrend

2023年2月16日

Gold's general commentary: Gold is pricing in strong downswing, mostly below it’s Daily chart’s Resistance now turned in Support (Xau-Usd Spot prices at #1,852.80), which Technically leans more to the Bearish side. Investors are waiting for core economic catalysts, besides today’s semi-Bearish session, as Bond Yields far from crisis (seen last fractal) arises and comfort Sellers in their intent, as Gold is following aswell Bond Yields movements for #6-consecutive sessions now.


Technical analysis: DX is Trading again on the same pattern (many similarities with fractal started on March #28), creating High’s which are later Sold, which local High’s can turn Gold even Lower (especially since the equities are posting a strong rally), but that hasn't happened so far, leading me to believe that the DX weighs more on Gold than Bond Yields at the moment, and which is main correlating asset is answer which is not easy to give. Hence, as discussed, keep track of the DX to make Short-term entries on Gold, as the Medium-term remains Bearish (solid Descending Channel on the Daily chart should form once Price-action kickstarts the #4th decline). In my opinion, #1,827.80 should be tested and aggressively invalidated on one hit / try and should deliver additional Selling entry towards #1,800.80 psychological benchmark / however on the other side, #1,852.80 - #1,855.80 presents strong Resistance zone (far away) from current Bearish variance, and if broken, I won’t hesitate to pursue #1,862.80 extension or Higher (very small chances for mentioned fractal to be developed, almost equal to zero). Fundamentally, Bond Yields are still a recovery, DX (# +0.64%) reversed and corrected latest peak, I cannot expect anything else than Selling continuation towards #1,800.80 benchmark, since market was closed many times now below #MA50 on Daily chart. However, so far the near #1,827.80 Support test-and-break is unsuccessful, as the Price-action was rejected near the configuration. This gives further justification to my cyclical downside parabola. Current Price-action stagnation is due Medium and Long-term Investors booking their Profit on their Selling orders, and Hourly 4 chart's Neutrality is going well with Daily chart on healthy Bearish Technicals. This provides valid ground for ranging market and extension of the current Bearish cycle I've been mentioning since mid-January.


My position: Regardless of the possible consolidation, I have engaged Selling order (#1,840.80 as my key entry point) and #1,800.80 psychological benchmark as my optimal Target. I expect my Target to be realized within #5-session horizon.