Gold - Looking at the week ahead
Hi Team
GOLD is doing as expected currently, and my last post (see linked) has now hit TP1.
As we ride this down to local support levels, we are respecting the 1H EMA. We didn't get the correction last week but am expecting it this week, so once that marked EMA is broken, we can look to ride the short term correction up. More on that later in the week.
FUNDAMENTALS
At the moment, inflation is skyrocketing globally. Typically this is a boon for gold investments - as a safe haven currency it's a sensible place to hold the value of investment compare to fiat.
The FED, however, along with other governments (see BOJ stubbornness just last week on yoy interest rate) is determined to see this inflationary pressure off. This has led to a market that is more volatile than usual, and even more new reactive than usual!
With all of that in mind, it is important that we limit our expectations to the short term - what we can see right in front of us. With that said, it's time look at the news.
NEWS
Mon Aug 22:
-1230 GMT Chicago Fed NA Index. This is basically a ticker tape indicator for inflationary pressure. Expect USD strength from this.
Tuesday Aug 23:
-1345 GMT SMP Global news event and new home sales. This is basically a snapshot of market conditions for large manufacturing businesses. Expect issues like trade delay, economic fallout with Russia (inc. sanctions) to play a part. Above 50 - or higher than prev = bullish for USD (aka Bearish for Gold)
Wednesday Aug 24:
- 1230 GMT Durable goods orders and non-defence capital goods orders. This is looking at how much big manufacturing players are paying for lasting materials and goods. IF the cost goes up, that's bad for the USD.
Thursday Aug 25:
- 1230 GMT GDP Q2 Annualised, Jobless claims This is massive, and is a summary of the entire monetary value of everything the USD has/produced for the Q2. IF lower than expected, expect investors fearful of runaway inflation to hike gold back up.
- 1400 GMT Jackson Hole symposium This is going on all week ( to add to the chaos) and has been going since 1978. Expect important speeches from big players in banking and economic policy to sway investor sentiment - variable impact.
Friday Aug 26:
- 1400 GMT Fed Powell speech Here we are again - the most chaotic part of the week. It is almost always the news event and not the news/data itself that drives markets, and I expect no difference this week. If making money, that will be the time to SLBE.
Sat 27 Aug:
- 1230 GMTJackson hole symposium As above.
Summary:
USD not done yet. Expect some manufacturing hotspots to place a squeeze, but majority of sentiment likely to be bullish for USD. Chaotic end on Friday, look to make safe or close if not interested in trading big news.
Technicals:
Good rejection from Descending daily resistance last week, looking for some short term continuation before a complex correction. We are likely to see major volatility in the week, so I am only selling "in the middle" aka whilst price is respecting the marked EMA.
GOLD is always chaotic, and many people lose money by over trading and thus not accounting for volatility. Please be sensible!
Good luck, trade safe - and if you like what I do, why not hit the like and subscribe buttons?
Thanks!
DrBear
GOLD is doing as expected currently, and my last post (see linked) has now hit TP1.
As we ride this down to local support levels, we are respecting the 1H EMA. We didn't get the correction last week but am expecting it this week, so once that marked EMA is broken, we can look to ride the short term correction up. More on that later in the week.
FUNDAMENTALS
At the moment, inflation is skyrocketing globally. Typically this is a boon for gold investments - as a safe haven currency it's a sensible place to hold the value of investment compare to fiat.
The FED, however, along with other governments (see BOJ stubbornness just last week on yoy interest rate) is determined to see this inflationary pressure off. This has led to a market that is more volatile than usual, and even more new reactive than usual!
With all of that in mind, it is important that we limit our expectations to the short term - what we can see right in front of us. With that said, it's time look at the news.
NEWS
Mon Aug 22:
-1230 GMT Chicago Fed NA Index. This is basically a ticker tape indicator for inflationary pressure. Expect USD strength from this.
Tuesday Aug 23:
-1345 GMT SMP Global news event and new home sales. This is basically a snapshot of market conditions for large manufacturing businesses. Expect issues like trade delay, economic fallout with Russia (inc. sanctions) to play a part. Above 50 - or higher than prev = bullish for USD (aka Bearish for Gold)
Wednesday Aug 24:
- 1230 GMT Durable goods orders and non-defence capital goods orders. This is looking at how much big manufacturing players are paying for lasting materials and goods. IF the cost goes up, that's bad for the USD.
Thursday Aug 25:
- 1230 GMT GDP Q2 Annualised, Jobless claims This is massive, and is a summary of the entire monetary value of everything the USD has/produced for the Q2. IF lower than expected, expect investors fearful of runaway inflation to hike gold back up.
- 1400 GMT Jackson Hole symposium This is going on all week ( to add to the chaos) and has been going since 1978. Expect important speeches from big players in banking and economic policy to sway investor sentiment - variable impact.
Friday Aug 26:
- 1400 GMT Fed Powell speech Here we are again - the most chaotic part of the week. It is almost always the news event and not the news/data itself that drives markets, and I expect no difference this week. If making money, that will be the time to SLBE.
Sat 27 Aug:
- 1230 GMTJackson hole symposium As above.
Summary:
USD not done yet. Expect some manufacturing hotspots to place a squeeze, but majority of sentiment likely to be bullish for USD. Chaotic end on Friday, look to make safe or close if not interested in trading big news.
Technicals:
Good rejection from Descending daily resistance last week, looking for some short term continuation before a complex correction. We are likely to see major volatility in the week, so I am only selling "in the middle" aka whilst price is respecting the marked EMA.
GOLD is always chaotic, and many people lose money by over trading and thus not accounting for volatility. Please be sensible!
Good luck, trade safe - and if you like what I do, why not hit the like and subscribe buttons?
Thanks!
DrBear
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