Gold Analysis: GDP and Jackson Hole Symposium On The Card

2021年8月22日

Fundamental View

Though last week had enough market mover data to share the Gold price, nothing happened last week after a big flash crash before last week though the USA had some major economic reports.

Compared to the last week, there are no big events that can turmoil the gold price if something doesn't happen unexpectedly.

There are four major economic reports to be published for the next week.
Prelim GDP
Jackson Hole Symposium
Core PCE Price Index
Fed Chair Powell Speaks

Among the four market mover data, GDP and Powell's speech may impact the gold price. Tough last week, we also had Powell's speech, but the impact was little.

Current fundamental events are few and not having many impacts on the market. But we should look at the pandemic situation and Afghanistan news. Overall, the worse situation of the world means investors will rush to buy safe-haven gold. Though the circumstance is not as bad yet, we should be concerned.

Technical View

Technically market is still in a downtrend; that's true. But if we look at the weekly chart, it has formed a long-leg bullish pin bar candle from the critical support. Though that candle formed for flash crases maybe that's why we didn't see buyers last week.
But such a big bullish pin bar from critical support may increase bullish biases.



In the daily chart, the gold price still holding descending channels.

In H4, gold formed a triangle. Next week it will break the triangle and will have 150/200 pips move easily. Breaking below 1775, we may go for sell, and 1st target is the 1755-1750 price zone. Breaking below 1750 may open the door for the 1720 price zone.

I don't think the gold price will drop below 1720 easily. However, if it drops below 1720, our 3rd target 1685 price zone.

In the alternative scenario, as long as the market is below the descending trendline, we will not buy gold. But after breaking above the descending trend line, the gold price may immediately test the 1830/1835 price zone. Finally, breaking above the 1835 price zone may open the door for the 1900 price zone.