Free Monthly chart explanation / Gold is on a crossroads

2020年11月12日

As discussed, as long as #1,845.80 holds, Gold is more likely to push towards #1,910.80 extension for a Lower High test breaking the Daily chart Rectangle. This Trading week is packed with the U.S. reports, so Fundamentally the real trend will be revealed after those, since today’s session delivered indecision movements only. The Short-term Price-action has turned Bullish just over the Hourly 4 first Support #1,859.80. It is interesting to mention that even the Hourly 1 and Daily charts to a certain extent are Bullish. Everything depends upon the DX (and to a lesser extent the Stock markets and Bond notes), so I can't make any Short-term recommendation other than the breakout points that I am already Trading on. See also how Xau-Usd (spot price) and GC (Futures price) are finally closing the gap and getting into tight range again. Regarding today’s session - two straight green Hourly 4 candles (after Bearish rejection) so far which indicate (unless broken) that #1,850.80 is a Double Bottom and a sign of Buying continuation as Gold should potentially stay Bullish for a few sessions in a symmetrical manner as September #23 - #28 configuration. It is important to note that RSI levels, visible on my charts should draw Buyers into consideration, as RSI got rejected on March Support. #1,860.80 is so far holding and is the level I am focusing at since #4 sessions. The Stimulus conference down-played the quick recovery hopes which the Stock markets Investors had, especially since September, and the sharp Stock Sell-off still didn’t benefited Gold as a safe-haven. I am on critical cross-roads, as I have been mentioning the past few weeks Gold has regained its negative correlation with Stock markets. Adding to that the fact that DX is on a gradual downfall since September #27, I quickly understand why Gold tested Lower levels even though the Hourly 4 chart was on Lower Highs / Higher Lows throughout the October #21 - October #28. Main evidence is that Gold Trades inside the irrational movements zone, which configuration on October #29 confirms - Support was broken and Price-action bounced back again, lately (November #8) Price-action broken the Higher High Resistance strongly (#1,960.80 then) and bounced downwards on #1,855.80 extension, which represents that Technical values are no longer valid at the moment. Statistically, Gold is not following Technical values for #8 sessions now and if #1,845.80 breaks, my setup is invalidated as I will Sell towards #1,750.80. However, I am holding my Buy orders calling for #1,910.80 extension, since I am giving more probabilities to the upside.