goldenBear88

Gold is Oversold / Possible Buying leg / #18 Profits row

TVC:GOLD   黄金差价合约(美元/盎司)
As expected, Gold is Trading on my predicted values within a Channel Down since September #18 High. This Channel Up has a clear Lower High zone Lower Low zone. This is where a Medium-term Trade Sells and Buys respectively (usual sign of indecision). Since Friday’s session, the Price-action has put a temporary stop to the downtrend as it hasn't made a new Lower Low yet. That stop has formed the Daily Support at #1,840.80 and is Natural that bigger proportion decline will attract Buyers. This is (if broken) basically the ideal Buying adding zone for the Short-term. The lack of a new Lower Low on the Short-term has made me believe that the time is approaching when the market will put this (Long-term) correction behind and call for a steeper fall, but only when RSI levels Normalize. I will need to see the former Lower Low to break in order to confirm this Bearish breakout which would restore the Long-term Bearish bias (#1,750.80). Today’s outlook had a clear rising trend (Lower High) and if during this week Lower High trendlines break, it will be the first sign that the Short-term trend is reversing (higher). The candles may continue under the Lower High zone but RSI is showing critical Bullish values, and is a signal for Buyers. Anyway this is an overview of the current situation, but needless to note, I am expecting #1,830.80 test within #10 sessions. Inflation on DX will be temporary and would likely produce the kind of fiscal and monetary policies to revive growth. The post-crisis environment might be Gold-friendly, like the recovery from the financial crisis, but with Monetary stimulus negotiations showing no further agreement, Gold is a Selling option. The Volatility is still high however and Gold may look to set a new Resistance zone first before hitting #1,832.80. Gold went into E.U. market Selling, weighed on by Stock markets following the Monetary stimulus postponement. Consequent to recent Bearish outlook, Weekly Price-action is still near my predicted values at #1,855.80, potentially calling for a Support test and #1,832.80 extension. However, Core Durable Goods announcement missed their estimate and last time it happened (statistically, #7 out of #7 reports were Bullish for Gold) Gold engaged early Bullish phase with #15$ or more Bull spike - since my Monthly Profits are huge, there is no reason to hurry with a Position and endanger the Profit without a valid reason. The top edge of a Higher Low Volatility belt continuing to push Gold sideways and could be the case during this session. Bottom line: as is evident, Gold is showing both Bullish and Bearish signs (Indecision candles), so best suggestion in those cases is to Trade the breakout. #1,840.80 calling for #1,830.80, #1,865 towards #1,887.80.

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