Copper - (continued) SHORT; for now ...

2023年5月23日

I fail to grasp the general consensus where the overall impression seems to be that "bad technicals" but "a very pretty fundamental picture"?
LME stocks jumped +45% just since January alone! - How is that a "good" fundamental picture? (I must be missing something, especially with China not coming back, in any way resembling past demand.)
Long(er) term, one could make a case, perhaps, but only by disregarding the hole that the decline of Chinese demand will poke into global fundamentals.

On the other hand, Copper/Gold ratio looks rather bullish.

Here is a close-up;


As for the Copper/Gold Ratio;

That is definitely what bullish looks like!

Stay SHORT for now (... and then make a lot of money trading it from under 3.50 ;-)

2023年5月30日

交易开始

So far, this has been moving by the numbers, like clock work;

Let's hope this continues - with lots of money yet to be collected!
SHORT

2023年5月31日

注释

So far, this one ...

... continues to play by the numbers. (Wish it was always this easy ;-) Lots of money is yet to be made here so, just keep at it!
LME stocks are at record levels and still growing. (A US recession down-spike is yet to crush this!) The only potential concern here are the managed money shorts, making this trade increasingly lopsided. (Which is why I chose to play this with synthetic puts.)

2023年6月8日

交易结束：到达目标

This has been kindly following our numbers (arrows) ...

... and after making 50%+ on it, it's now time to just sit and watch ;-)
This is still a Short Bias here, with an undeniable US recession looming and all.

2023年6月8日

注释

We are however, continue to watch Copper/Gold closely ...

... as the model suggests there should be quite an opportunity towards the end of the summer.

2023年6月12日

交易开始

I forgot to update this earlier;

This is a strong SHORT here.

2023年6月21日

交易开始

No China stimulus, stronger USD, LME stocks sky high ... Who could've foreseen all of that?! ;-) So, until Cooper is discovered to be a cure for cancer ...

... this is a SHORT

2023年6月25日

注释

Boom!!

This is just getting under way (SHORT)!

... and here, together with it's "evil cousin" - HG/GC;

... pointing the way to a not-so-soft-landing (i.e., the life sciences' equivalent of: exceedingly-more-than-just-somewhat-pregnant.)

2023年7月18日

注释

To say that Copper has been going by-the-numbers this year, would be an understatement;

Lot of money already made and yet to be collected here.
If not already SHORT, now would be a good time.