Real estate cycle down

2019年7月17日

IYR DRN DRV
Pay close attention to real estate- It is due for a cycle low somewhere around early-mid 2020. Because the cycle peak is late, I would venture to say that the move downward could be accelerated. How low it goes should reveal how bearish (or bullish) it is.

2019年7月17日

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daily view:

2019年7月19日

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closer view on daily- shows ascending megaphone into the top of this cycle.. This is a bearish pattern but a pain to try to short. It may be worth waiting for it to break below this pattern for being short.. It could move up strong in another move... I was shorting back in April... mistake.

2019年8月12日

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alright- this should be it. I'm adding long PUTS here. This cycle low is due mid 2020 and there's going to be a lot going on before then. I'm reaching as far out on expiry as I can (Jan 2021) PUTS and I'll be patient this time.

2019年8月20日

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take a look at the weekly stoch/rsi...

2019年8月22日

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This weekly candle close will be right on that stoch/rsi bear divergence line. Just worth noting

2019年9月4日

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Green box I've allowed myself a total of 5 longer term put buys on IYR. I currently only have 2 but they are out for Jan 2021 expiry. I suspect that the longer we top out, the more violent/quick the correction will be.
I'm trying to be patient for a potential spike up to add to my short position:

2019年10月1日

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several weeks of sideways action is keeping the stoch/rsi flattened- I've never seen it like this. I'm slowly adding to my long term short position.

2019年10月1日

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2019年10月18日

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whew, watching corn grow here. Stoch/RSI still pinned on weekly. Buy low, sell high - this ain't a place I'd be a buyer. I've added some IYR puts out for 2021