KSS -OFF Sell Earnings/ Black Friday

2018年11月8日

With all the competition for the retail dollar this Xmas season. Two retailers facing existential challenges; and most Big Boxes squared in battle with each other and the 900 lb gorilla on the internet [AMZN]. It seems incredible that upstart Kohl's can continue to run ahead of the pack with a P/E of 16.5. When larger rivals Macy's and Target (not to mention Walmart) struggle to maintain valuations 30% lower. Retail traffic is slowing and tariffs are starting to take effect on earnings and expectations, witness blow-ups Ralph Lauren {RL and Michael Kors {KORS just this past week. Furthermore, with the market punishing the latest earnings reporters for any transgression (I think they call it 'Priced for perfection.'); retail, especially Big Box stores, could falter quite badly with any deviation from the script that this will be the 2nd best Xmas in the last five years based on robust consumer confidence. Oh yea, technically KSS may be completing a 5 of 5 wave pattern going back to 2015 that has taken it to all time highs. Maybe that is why it is trading with reckless abandon.