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Litecoin False Breakout - Back to $40?

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Not really a surprise here. After briefly heading higher, Litecoin has drifted back into the range it's been in since the beginning of the year. Since the failed breakout, I think it means Litecoin will need to test the lower bounds of the trading range and hope to God it finds buyers.

I called the end to the rally a bit prematurely a couple of months ago:

You can see that Litecoin is right back to its breakout level and losing support at the 4H 200 MA (teal).

My speculation is that intentional distribution has been occurring, which would explain why it's been stuck in this price range for a while without meaningful volume, despite various attempts to break higher punctuated by strong selling action. The recent pump resulted in a harsh rejection from the 100 week MA (yellow), and a dump back below the bear market downtrend.

Since crypto profits from hype, my guess is the "halving pump" is already over, and sellers have taken their gains. The lack of engagement on TradingvIew with new crypto-related posts also tells me that retail is long gone.

My bearish idea will be invalidated if Litecoin can sustain above the trading range, and especially if it can hold above $100 for a meaningful period of time. Litecoin will also need to continue holding the 50 week MA.

For confirmation of my idea, we will need to see a quick breakdown soon, followed by a breakdown of the $70 range. If it does manage to break down, then $40 better hold, or I think we can see new lows, due to lack of demand and liquidity.

Let's see!

This is meant for speculation and entertainment only. I could be totally off-base here. But, I'm sticking to my bearish guns. Thanks for reading!

注释

Yikes! Already back to the 50 week MA. If that fails to hold, or if an initial breakdown does not result in a large bounce, I think price can easily head back to $40 and perhaps lower.