LTC hot to trot! Do charts even matter?
已更新
During big changes in fundamentals, technical analysis can really lead you down the wrong path. LTCUSD recent few weeks is a really good example of that! Essentially, due to the Segwit activation bad blood, fear, uncertainty and doubt were sprayed all over the place, having a significant effect on the price.
Today's price action comes from several tweets during an LTC Roundtable, in which industry leaders had a video conference and Charlie Lee, CEO of LTC tweeted that they had come to an agreement and Segwit would be supported by the miners.
Read about that here: medium.com/@Litecoinchina/litecoin-global-roundtable-resolution-001-2017-c67b729bc06d
My take: Obviously the market will respond to such overwhelmingly good news! Price skies on results of the news. Now if you didn't have a crystal ball to predict the roundtable (or an insider tip) it would have been extremely hard to time this, as TA doesn't predict dramatic fundamental changes. This news combined with Charlie tweeting a screen grab of LTC being available on Coinbase for purchse via credit, and you get the results from today.
But let's think about the psychology and personalities of the two main characters in our drama. Charlie is a hopeless optimist, and a bit lazy of a character and personality. From his twitter profile, he seems to love cannabis (nothing wrong with that), and generally wants to think people are good and helpful and want to help society. Very much flowers and "save the planet man..." kinda vibe. I generally call these guys, "the dupe".
Now Jihan Wu is a sharp, smart, driven and motivated go getter who has actually built a company, bought a building, filled it with machines, connected it to the power grid, gotten agreements with local officials for cheaper electricity and has probably made a whole network of bribes, payoffs, etc.. to make his company work building ASIC computers. One of Jihans favorite inventions is ASICBoost, which covertly allows the miner to gain an extra 20% payouts while showing the same hash rate. This is whom I would call "the shark".
When a "dupe" and a "shark" enter a room, you can, for sure, bet that the dupe will walk away "happy" and the shark will be "despondent" due to giving ground. Classic feint maneuver. Two major clues give this away;
1. LTC1BTC.com hasn't started signalling Segwit and the longer they delay, the less and less likely Segwit activates this period. (Really making people upset.)
2. Bitmain (Jihan's company) hasn't started shipping out ASICs to customers on their last order, and they have "been delayed due to firmware issues".
Psychological prediction for the market: Charlie got duped by Jihan...again. LTC will soar to $12.5 - $14 before retracting on the "bad news" that Segwit won't make it to 75% this period.
Actual fundamental shift: Look to Jihan, not Charlie. Charlie is grass in the wind, blown this way and that. Jihan is sharp, focused and has a concrete goal and concrete plan on how to achieve it, he's the one in charge.
NOTE: Due to the dangers of predicting psychology (you thought TA predictions were bad) I'm not trading LTCUSD at the moment. If/when the fundamentals change, i.e. LTC1BTC.com and LTCtop start signalling and the Segwit support looks like 1-2 hours away from activation. Then the fundamentals will "lock in" and I'll trade. If you'd like to trade now, I'd say gather up anything under $11.
I'm showing you my sketch chart to show you how wrong TA can be when fundamentals are changing so rapidly.
List of websites to check hashrates and adoption for Segwit;
litecoinpool.org/pools
litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php
twitter.com/SatoshiLite (Charlie Lee's twitter)
twitter.com/JihanWu (Jihan Wu's twitter) <-- note how angry he is over the last few weeks. Think that just "goes away"?
Today's price action comes from several tweets during an LTC Roundtable, in which industry leaders had a video conference and Charlie Lee, CEO of LTC tweeted that they had come to an agreement and Segwit would be supported by the miners.
Read about that here: medium.com/@Litecoinchina/litecoin-global-roundtable-resolution-001-2017-c67b729bc06d
My take: Obviously the market will respond to such overwhelmingly good news! Price skies on results of the news. Now if you didn't have a crystal ball to predict the roundtable (or an insider tip) it would have been extremely hard to time this, as TA doesn't predict dramatic fundamental changes. This news combined with Charlie tweeting a screen grab of LTC being available on Coinbase for purchse via credit, and you get the results from today.
But let's think about the psychology and personalities of the two main characters in our drama. Charlie is a hopeless optimist, and a bit lazy of a character and personality. From his twitter profile, he seems to love cannabis (nothing wrong with that), and generally wants to think people are good and helpful and want to help society. Very much flowers and "save the planet man..." kinda vibe. I generally call these guys, "the dupe".
Now Jihan Wu is a sharp, smart, driven and motivated go getter who has actually built a company, bought a building, filled it with machines, connected it to the power grid, gotten agreements with local officials for cheaper electricity and has probably made a whole network of bribes, payoffs, etc.. to make his company work building ASIC computers. One of Jihans favorite inventions is ASICBoost, which covertly allows the miner to gain an extra 20% payouts while showing the same hash rate. This is whom I would call "the shark".
When a "dupe" and a "shark" enter a room, you can, for sure, bet that the dupe will walk away "happy" and the shark will be "despondent" due to giving ground. Classic feint maneuver. Two major clues give this away;
1. LTC1BTC.com hasn't started signalling Segwit and the longer they delay, the less and less likely Segwit activates this period. (Really making people upset.)
2. Bitmain (Jihan's company) hasn't started shipping out ASICs to customers on their last order, and they have "been delayed due to firmware issues".
Psychological prediction for the market: Charlie got duped by Jihan...again. LTC will soar to $12.5 - $14 before retracting on the "bad news" that Segwit won't make it to 75% this period.
Actual fundamental shift: Look to Jihan, not Charlie. Charlie is grass in the wind, blown this way and that. Jihan is sharp, focused and has a concrete goal and concrete plan on how to achieve it, he's the one in charge.
NOTE: Due to the dangers of predicting psychology (you thought TA predictions were bad) I'm not trading LTCUSD at the moment. If/when the fundamentals change, i.e. LTC1BTC.com and LTCtop start signalling and the Segwit support looks like 1-2 hours away from activation. Then the fundamentals will "lock in" and I'll trade. If you'd like to trade now, I'd say gather up anything under $11.
I'm showing you my sketch chart to show you how wrong TA can be when fundamentals are changing so rapidly.
List of websites to check hashrates and adoption for Segwit;
litecoinpool.org/pools
litecoinblockhalf.com/segwit.php
twitter.com/SatoshiLite (Charlie Lee's twitter)
twitter.com/JihanWu (Jihan Wu's twitter) <-- note how angry he is over the last few weeks. Think that just "goes away"?
注释
Segwit fails again this round. People will be duped!!Currently 3185/6068 blocks needed to activate Segwit have been mined, approximately 52% of the way there. Another 2883/3523 (82%) are needed to activate.
If the Segwit support shot to 83%, now (AM 4/21) there would be a chance of activation this period. However the longer LTC1BTC and LTCTop delay, the less and less likely activation happens this round.
If Segwit doesn't go above 90% in the next 24 hours it is guaranteed to fail activation this round. Prepare for the psychological swing and dumping due to despondency.
注释
My sketch chart. Pretty terrible prediction. Lol. 注释
LTC1BTC, LTCTop and Antpool are NOT signalling Segwit. This is what happens when an idealist and a realist enters a room together. The idealist wants to believe so they believe.
My take: Jihan has duped the dupe, Charlie is a total idiot and got totally suckered by Jihan, again. If they were actually "happy" about their agreement, those three pools would have immediately started signalling after the meeting. The longer this goes on, the more and more it looks like Jihan duped Charlie. There should be one more chance of sub $10 LTC.
注释
Reading psychology. Tough stuff eh? Well I wasn't totally right about a few peoples personalities that I analyzed through a few twitter posts and some news articles. Whod've guessed. Lol.
So Segwit signaling seems to have confirmed the outcome of the Roundtable, and ALL major pools are now signaling.
Welcome to the rocket ride folks!
Currently 96% of pools are signaling, including LTC1BTC and LTCTop. This puts a time frame of around 3+ days before Segwit fully activates and "locks in".
Total and complete fundamental change. This will have LTCUSD see an ETHUSD type run in the coming month.
I also expect that LTCUSD will be available on Coinbase next week, once Segwit is confirmed. Which is probably why Charlie Lee has been so furiously trying to get it passed this round. Expect this to spark a huge surge for LTCUSD.
All signals say Moonflight scheduled for all of May!
注释
LTC is looking really strong after the surge over the weekend. The LTC Rountable news has done it's job and sent it soaring to 16 before settling down around 15. I've seen it test 14.3 a few times, but every time volume comes up and they're bought pretty quickly.There are now over 75% blocks mined as Segwit with a current 96% Segwit support. At 500 blocks mined every 20 hours, we'll have activation occur sometime in the next 48-56 hours from now. 7am PST.
I'm predicting we'll see 18 once Segwit officially activates and low 20s once it gets added to Coinbase (probably next week after Segwit).
We'll find out!
注释
Looks like ETHUSD is about to take off. With Segwit ~500 blocks away from activation, people are getting hyped up on the countdown. Everyone loves a countdown. And just like newyears, expect kisses, singing, merriment, and if you're not careful, the hangover the next day.Avoid the hangover folks. End your night when the excitement is at its peak. Come the next day to pick up all the pieces.... and dropped coins.
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