#202433 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures

Good Evening and I hope you are well.

tl;dr
gold: Bears got follow through but bulls still kept it a higher lower. Best for bears would be to keep it below 2480 or we might as well go to 2510 again. Big triangle on the daily chart and currently exactly at the midpoint of it. Does not get more neutral than this.

Quote from last week:

comment: Clear rejection above 2500 again but the bear bar from Friday has a big tail below, because bulls bought the daily 20ema. It’s mid’ish of the triangle so the worst place to trade. I do think it’s more reasonable to expect more downside than a break above the ath but I won’t take my chances. I wait for market to show me. Both sides have reasonable arguments to retest the highs again or finally giving up on 2500. Volume saw a huge increase again, which could mean that we are coming to an end of this range between 2300 and 2500, over the next weeks to months.

comment: Easy analysis. We are 4 points above last weeks close. We are in a triangle and exactly at the midpoint, again. Market is as neutral as it gets. Don’t make this more complicated than it needs to be. Either buy low and sell high inside given range or wait for a breakout.

current market cycle: trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months —unchanged

key levels: 2400 - 2520

bull case: Bulls bought the dip again and kept it at higher lows. Odds favor a test of 2500 or 2510. It would be very strong by the bulls if they could get above 2522 again. Not more to it currently.
Invalidation is below 2400.

bear case: Market is neutral around 2470. Bears gave up on Thursday since they only made a higher low and could not get a daily close below 2430. I don’t think many bears want to fight this until we get above 2500 again. If they do, probably not due to technical reasons (by technical I always mean TA - technical analysis)
Invalidation is above 2522.

outlook last week:

short term: Neutral 2450 - 2490. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below.

→ Last Sunday we traded 2469 and now we are at 2473. Perfect outlook.

short term: Neutral around 2475. Will only scalp this on momentum inside the triangle but swing will have to wait for a bigger breakout above or below. Want to see 2500 to look for shorts again.

medium-long term: For now I think the most reasonable outlook I could give is a trading range 2200-2500. This could hold for some time. Bear in my still thinks this rally is moronic and we will see 2000 again this year but that’s as unreasonable of an outlook one could hold so don’t. —unchanged since May

current swing trade: None

chart update: Nothing