#202436 - priceactiontds - weekly update - gold futures
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls confirmed the breakout with a strong monthly close above 2500. There are multiple nested wedges currently and I would not buy into the highs but rather wait for a pullback or a breakout above 2570. Last thing you should do right now is to look for shorts until bears come around big time. Last time bears even touched the weekly ema was end of February.
Quote from last week:
comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it.
current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that.
key levels: 2400 - 2570
bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above the daily ema at 2517.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week.
Invalidation is above 2570.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded 2546 and now we are at 2527. High of the week was 2564. 19 point miss over a week is as good as it gets.
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient.
medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed unnecessary lines and made the bullish structure more clear.
tl;dr
gold: Bulls confirmed the breakout with a strong monthly close above 2500. There are multiple nested wedges currently and I would not buy into the highs but rather wait for a pullback or a breakout above 2570. Last thing you should do right now is to look for shorts until bears come around big time. Last time bears even touched the weekly ema was end of February.
Quote from last week:
comment: Did we learn anything from a sideways week? We have a bullish pattern and a technical textbook pullback a bit above the ema. Bulls bought it and that is bullish. But only a break above 2570 is confirmation. Resistance is always that until it breaks, no matter how strong you think the trend is/looks/feels and this trend inside a 5 month trading range is not strong so far. Bulls are trying the breakout and the monthly close will be the most important for them. If they manage their first close above 2500, it would be a confirmation and buy signal going into September. What could be a potential target above? Since the trading range was mostly between 2300 - 2500ish, we can do a measured move up and that would bring us to the ballpark around 2700.
comment: Weekly inside bar. I am not lazy but I do not see any value in making up more words to fill the page so you can stay busy longer reading this. Market is neutral around 2530. Bulls need a daily close above 2570 and bears one below 2500. That’s it. Structure is still bullish. We have a big bull wedge on the weekly/monthly chart, nested bull wedges on lower time frames and sort of a bull channel upwards. I very slightly favor the bears to test 2500 again but only because bears closed last week at the lows. Daily ema held for 3 weeks now and there is no reason why it should break now and we are only 10 points above it.
current market cycle: Trading range for many months now and it’s probably coming to an end over the next weeks/months. Bulls are currently still trading above the previous highs, which is sort of confirmation of the breakout but I am not 100% convinced. Need a daily close above 2570 for that.
key levels: 2400 - 2570
bull case: Bears not doing enough so bulls are happy to continue. They want 2600 next and have all arguments on their side as long as they stay above the daily ema at 2517.
Invalidation is below 2500.
bear case: Nothing changed for the bears. Either stop the bulls below 2570 or give up for 2600 and potentially 2700 over the next weeks. Bears need a 1h close below 2500 badly. That’s it. Exactly the same sentences as last week.
Invalidation is above 2570.
outlook last week:
short term: Exactly the same as last week. Bears had a pullback and bulls bought it. Inherently bullish but only if bulls can break above 2570.
→ Last Sunday we traded 2546 and now we are at 2527. High of the week was 2564. 19 point miss over a week is as good as it gets.
short term: Neutral. Clear invalidation levels for both sides. Set up alarms and be patient.
medium-long term: Above 2570 I will update this. Until then we are in a trading range 2400-2570.
current swing trade: None.
chart update: Removed unnecessary lines and made the bullish structure more clear.
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