MSFT looks to make a move soon

已更新

Since later August MSFT has used the $305 trend line as resistance but it has not been able to breakthrough

- Right angled descending broadening wedge is looked at a bullish a bullish pattern
+ close at $306 is breakout

- Increased buying volume in the formation of the pattern
+ increased selling volume September 17/20

- Strong bounce off $289 support level
+ former analysis support level
+ bounce off 50 EMA

There is a lot of indecision in the market, especially with the strong uptrend the market has been going through. Right angled descending wedge patterns usually is formed after an uptrend (concerns of reversal grows). The feds are holding off on tapering for the moment, so the bullish momentum is starting to trend up.
+ if there is a bullish breakout $314.86 acts as a potential price target
+ with voting on infrastructure bill September 27, it'll be best to wait til MSFT hit a support point Tuesday

注释

Regarding the infrastructure bill September 27, it is looking unlikely as though it will pass. A denial of this bill would likely send tech stocks up (with the temporary delay of tapering).

- More liberal democrats want to pass a $3.5 trillion tax that central democrats do not agree with. When the bi-partisan bill was passed (August 9) it was with the commitment to support that tax bill.

" We voted for the bipartisan infrastructure bill with the clear commitment that the two pieces of the package would move together along a dual track,” the lawmakers wrote. “Abandoning the $3.5 trillion Build Back Better Act and passing the infrastructure bill first would be in violation of that agreement.”

+ centrist believe that $1.5 trillion is a better number
+ several reps. believe that the bill should be pushed back and not rushed

This gives me a more bullish outlook going into next week. When extended out (to the right), my [yellow] trend line shows MSFT passing $314.86 around September 29.
+ always a good sign when news articles align with charting

washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/09/22/biden-democrats-infrastructure-reconciliation/

注释

Microsoft, as expected, broke the upward trend line today; it barely maintained the upward trend line yesterday. Reaching $304 was a tall ask with only half of its average volume. Many tech stocks are in a state of indecision with the the voting of the infrastructure bill September 27. There is no doubt that this decision, made by congress, will have great impact on the sector. August 9 was when the bi-partisan bill was first passed. August 24 was when the bill was modified. Going back to these dates, tech stocks fell for several days.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is optimistic that both, the infrastructure and mega tax, bills will get passed. Rep. Hakeem Jefferies. have come out and showed their support for Pelosi saying that "[they] believe [they're] on track to pass both bills next week." Many democrats do not believe that a 2.465 page tax bill will be negotiated and ready by next week. Centralist like Rep. Stephanie Murphy wants the bill to be more fiscally responsible.

The problem with a lot of democrat policies is that they require a lot of spending that is not fiscally responsible. Such a grande tax bill will not likely pass on September 27. The chair of the progressive caucus, Rep. Pramila Jayapal, personally vowed that the infrastructure bill will not pass the house on September 27. She stated that over half of her caucus, of 95, is prepared to vote against the bill.

There only needs to be a simple majority for the bill the pass (218 up votes), but with most of the GOP and half of the progressive projected to vote against it, it does not seem like the bill will pass.

nbcnews.com/politics/congress/pelosi-aims-pass-infrastructure-safety-net-bills-next-week-democrats-n1280040

Despite a slight down day, the MACD (5,35,5) is still moving upward. RSI was virtually unaffected today. The lack of activity is a sign that buyers are waiting patiently for the vote September 27. Hedge funds and other investors will certainly be tuned in tallying votes - once there is the 218th down vote expect a large number of orders immediately and over the next few days.

注释

I was looking at the breakout point for September 27 and was wondering how MSFT would find resistance; I realized that I forgot a few trend lines. Late night charting will do that sometimes; moreover, I went and corrected the issue. In addition to, I added a gold trend line because this is the trend line I believe will be the ultimate support level before the vote September 27. I would expect MSFT to consolidate between resistance (downtrend line) and support til later afternoon. $300, after the vote, would serve as a breakout. A low of $299.20 on September 28 would be conformation of a trend reversal. So at this point, it is a waiting game. Sit back and lets ride this wave.

注释

S&P looks to have a rather bearish day as expected. MSFT is looking for support around the bottom of the wedge/50 EMA.

注释

MSFT, in pre market, fell to $289.39 and has moved up about a dollar. Potentially a double bottom, but there is a lot going on right now. Would not pull the trigger - just keeping an eye on it now.