NANO finally breaks out, but is the market ready?
已更新
For a change, I'm going to do an overall crypto market analysis on the NANOBTC chart, since I know a bunch of people were appreciating my updates on this pairing.
This market has gotten me pretty exhausted, which is why I haven't posted too many new charts recently. I'm trying to focus on other things at the moment. However, there are some really interesting things going on that I would like to point out. First of all, I speculated back in November that the EARLIEST we'd see the bull market return would be late January/early February. We are now entering late January. I also said this was when NANO was likely to break out. This is because I believe the last bull cycle matches up best with Bitcoin's 2011 bubble (in terms of severity for many altcoins). For those that don't remember, Bitcoin crashed from $30 to $2 (a 93.3% decline). The time it took to recover is equivalent to the time between the peak of the 2017 bull market and around now. History doesn't have to repeat itself, but often certain lengths of time do play into our psychology. Right now though, the market looks very mixed, if somewhat bearish. Reversals can happen extremely quickly, but Bitcoin in particular isn't showing any real positive signs. This means that I may have been wrong, and that the market is actually in the process of dying. Here are some observations (both positive and negative):
Positive observations:
1) Many alts have held support, and have even shown signs of accumulation, well above their November-December bottoms. Some are even beginning new bullish cycles (TRX, WAVES, STRAT, GVT, possibly NANO, etc.).
2) Bitcoin has broken out from a major downtrend resistance line on the Coinbase chart and has been testing it as support the last few days. tradingview.com/chart/Q2ZgZZoC/
3) Bitcoin's weekly RSI is looking very bottomy.
4) NANO has made its first higher high since being trapped in a long consolidation period dating back to October. I use NANO as a market sentiment indicator, because to me it signifies advancement in this space, and the people who are into cryptocurrencies see it as a major potential alternative to Bitcoin. Not that it will necessarily challenge Bitcoin's market cap eventually, but speculators see it this way, which is why it has remained bullish. It already had a clear capitulation bottom in August and recently retested its $0.75 low without breaking down in Bitcoin value.
Negative observations:
1) Bitcoin has failed at its Bitfinex resistance line over and over again. This line is extremely steep, and it has many touches on the daily, and even weekly charts. It connects the ATH, the Tether pump, the November Dump, and our most recent big green candle that got rejected. https://www.tradingview.com/x/at2vYove/
2) Alts are pumping, yes, but that's because there is a very small amount of money in this market. Only a small amount of capital is required to push up low cap coins (like GVT, for example). If you notice, the only top 10 alt to have a sustained run since November is TRX. Everything else looks weak, particularly XLM. Big investors have left and have seemingly no intention of buying at these prices.
3) The RSI on the alts that have pumped is way overheated, which indicates that it has taken too much buying pressure to support those prices, which means they aren't sustainable. This is just my impression though. It might not be an accurate interpretation of the data.
4) We've been seeing a lot of "fake" moves. Price will blast above resistance, only to come crashing down. Or price will break down below support, only to rally back up. This is characteristic of a market that has no direction. There have been a lot of stop hunts as well. I don't really think that indicates anything positive though, because I think the people are accumulating are doing so in order to control and destroy the market.
These negative observations lead me to believe that the market is actually CONTINUING to weaken. This means that I wouldn't be surprised if NANO actually retraced this entire pump and slid back down to support or new lows. If we do happen to decouple and move up, the bullish targets are in red on my chart. As you can see with this analysis, things are very mixed. When things are mixed in a bear market, it usually means a selloff is upon us. I'm fully expecting new lows for the market at this point. Best case scenario, I think we see a capitulation wick sometime over the next few weeks. Perhaps I'm wrong (I was wrong about Bitcoin holding 6K but I was right about NANO holding 0.75....go figure). Another possibility is that Bitcoin simply dies out, while some strong altcoins take its place. This would explain the bearish momentum with Bitcoin but the beginnings of a bull market for alts. The top contenders I saw for this were XRP and XLM. They have both remained suspiciously stagnant (and low) for a while. A big surprise would be to see them shoot up in Bitcoin value out of nowhere.
It is also possible that my negative view is just the emotional symptoms of the bear market. Maybe since I'm feeling so bearish, we really have bottomed. Overall, I think in my analyses, I've been more accurate than inaccurate, but I've made some bad calls that I'm not proud of as well. It's all part of my learning process, but I'm on the verge of really giving up now. I'll have to anyway, since my life is moving on.
This is not a trade setup or a recommendation to buy or sell. Here's my previous NANOBTC analysis for reference:
-Victor Cobra
This market has gotten me pretty exhausted, which is why I haven't posted too many new charts recently. I'm trying to focus on other things at the moment. However, there are some really interesting things going on that I would like to point out. First of all, I speculated back in November that the EARLIEST we'd see the bull market return would be late January/early February. We are now entering late January. I also said this was when NANO was likely to break out. This is because I believe the last bull cycle matches up best with Bitcoin's 2011 bubble (in terms of severity for many altcoins). For those that don't remember, Bitcoin crashed from $30 to $2 (a 93.3% decline). The time it took to recover is equivalent to the time between the peak of the 2017 bull market and around now. History doesn't have to repeat itself, but often certain lengths of time do play into our psychology. Right now though, the market looks very mixed, if somewhat bearish. Reversals can happen extremely quickly, but Bitcoin in particular isn't showing any real positive signs. This means that I may have been wrong, and that the market is actually in the process of dying. Here are some observations (both positive and negative):
Positive observations:
1) Many alts have held support, and have even shown signs of accumulation, well above their November-December bottoms. Some are even beginning new bullish cycles (TRX, WAVES, STRAT, GVT, possibly NANO, etc.).
2) Bitcoin has broken out from a major downtrend resistance line on the Coinbase chart and has been testing it as support the last few days. tradingview.com/chart/Q2ZgZZoC/
3) Bitcoin's weekly RSI is looking very bottomy.
4) NANO has made its first higher high since being trapped in a long consolidation period dating back to October. I use NANO as a market sentiment indicator, because to me it signifies advancement in this space, and the people who are into cryptocurrencies see it as a major potential alternative to Bitcoin. Not that it will necessarily challenge Bitcoin's market cap eventually, but speculators see it this way, which is why it has remained bullish. It already had a clear capitulation bottom in August and recently retested its $0.75 low without breaking down in Bitcoin value.
Negative observations:
1) Bitcoin has failed at its Bitfinex resistance line over and over again. This line is extremely steep, and it has many touches on the daily, and even weekly charts. It connects the ATH, the Tether pump, the November Dump, and our most recent big green candle that got rejected. https://www.tradingview.com/x/at2vYove/
2) Alts are pumping, yes, but that's because there is a very small amount of money in this market. Only a small amount of capital is required to push up low cap coins (like GVT, for example). If you notice, the only top 10 alt to have a sustained run since November is TRX. Everything else looks weak, particularly XLM. Big investors have left and have seemingly no intention of buying at these prices.
3) The RSI on the alts that have pumped is way overheated, which indicates that it has taken too much buying pressure to support those prices, which means they aren't sustainable. This is just my impression though. It might not be an accurate interpretation of the data.
4) We've been seeing a lot of "fake" moves. Price will blast above resistance, only to come crashing down. Or price will break down below support, only to rally back up. This is characteristic of a market that has no direction. There have been a lot of stop hunts as well. I don't really think that indicates anything positive though, because I think the people are accumulating are doing so in order to control and destroy the market.
These negative observations lead me to believe that the market is actually CONTINUING to weaken. This means that I wouldn't be surprised if NANO actually retraced this entire pump and slid back down to support or new lows. If we do happen to decouple and move up, the bullish targets are in red on my chart. As you can see with this analysis, things are very mixed. When things are mixed in a bear market, it usually means a selloff is upon us. I'm fully expecting new lows for the market at this point. Best case scenario, I think we see a capitulation wick sometime over the next few weeks. Perhaps I'm wrong (I was wrong about Bitcoin holding 6K but I was right about NANO holding 0.75....go figure). Another possibility is that Bitcoin simply dies out, while some strong altcoins take its place. This would explain the bearish momentum with Bitcoin but the beginnings of a bull market for alts. The top contenders I saw for this were XRP and XLM. They have both remained suspiciously stagnant (and low) for a while. A big surprise would be to see them shoot up in Bitcoin value out of nowhere.
It is also possible that my negative view is just the emotional symptoms of the bear market. Maybe since I'm feeling so bearish, we really have bottomed. Overall, I think in my analyses, I've been more accurate than inaccurate, but I've made some bad calls that I'm not proud of as well. It's all part of my learning process, but I'm on the verge of really giving up now. I'll have to anyway, since my life is moving on.
This is not a trade setup or a recommendation to buy or sell. Here's my previous NANOBTC analysis for reference:
-Victor Cobra
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Things are actually looking very good for NANO. Volume has dropped off, but that's to be expected during consolidation. The high volume on the recent move up confirms the breakout. We're well above the broken resistance and should be primed for a bigger move up sooner or later, as long as Bitcoin doesn't drop much. Even if it does, we still have the broken triangle as support (around 2520 right now). 注释
If we do use NANO as a bellwether for the rest of the market, including Bitcoin, we may be on the verge of a big breakout that would nearly confirm that the bottom is in. If that happens, I’ll post a new analysis on the Bitcoin chart. I have a long setup there on my profile. For now, as you can see we’re very close. A major drop here would negate the bullish view though. I know my attitude was a bit bearish in my above analysis, but I think the market is just getting to me. 注释
That red line in the snapshot above connects the ATH, the Tether pump, the November dump, and our recent price action.注释
So NANO did have another leg up, as expected, but got rejected right before 3000. Additionally, Bitcoin tried to make a push after breaking out of the resistance, but failed, and is likely to try to test it as support. If that support fails, it'll be bad for the market, and some of the warning signs I mentioned in my above analysis will be confirmed. I'm going to take a break. It may take a long time for the market to truly be ready again. Here's where we're at with Bitcoin: 注释
Just tested it as support, and it was successful. That's actually a good sign for the market. 注释
Successful test on NANO as well 注释
By the way, I did enter a short term trade on NANO recently - bought at 2560 and sold at 2900.注释
Depending on today’s daily and weekly close, we may have a major move in the market. Bulls are really struggling to hold the 3600 level (Bitfinex). Things look primed for a sell off, but sometimes things do turn around very suddenly, so be careful trading, especially on leverage.注释
Our next weekly BTC candle is now opening up right on top of (or outside of) resistance, depending on how you draw it. We may need to test that broken resistance yet again, since buyers haven't stepped in. The more we test it though, the stronger it becomes as support, and buyers will start showing up. However, if we test again and break down below, we will likely have a capitulation event by the market that COULD send us to new lows.注释
Or, of course, buyers can step in now : ) They have a great opportunity this week to confirm a break of that ridiculously steep downtrend.注释
So, as I suggested would happen since buyers didn't step in, we've retested the broken trendline, but we're currently failing to get back above it. Not a good sign. At least volume has finally stepped in. We should see some volatility soon, in any case. Watch out for that lower wedge support as well. 注释
We've also hit major supports for XRP and XLM. If those don't hold, we could get a big market wide selloff. Best case scenario we finally get a true capitulation wick. This is what I was hinting at with this analysis. Things don't look too healthy for the market, and a crash below the 200W EMA is possible. If this happens, NANO will likely at least slide back down to the $0.75 area, and if that strong support breaks, it'll probably head all the way down to $0.30. This is what I see as worst case scenario. At that point, recovery would become fairly unlikely, because $0.75 is the maximum correction I believe we can handle before we venture into the dead zone (it's nearly equivalent to Bitcoin's rise and fall in 2011, which I believe was its biggest correction). We're going to need to see some big buying volume soon, or this market will probably take at least another year to recover, if at all. Going to take a break. Going to do my best to not check prices tomorrow. Good luck!注释
Interestingly, NANO has still held above its breakout point. This might indicate some underlying bullishness in the market. If you recall, I suggested back in November that NANO would probably not go below $0.75, even if Bitcoin broke below 4K. This is because NANO's reaction off that level was way stronger than Bitcoin's at the 6K area. NANO is also the reason why I thought 6K was the bottom for Bitcoin, since NANO's 400% rise in August coincided with a bit Bitcoin rebound off the low. But it turns out that it was just probably the bottom for NANO. This all COULD mean that a trend shift is close....but who knows, really? Holding my position, for better or for worse. If we break below the support, this was likely a false breakout and we will head to the lows again. 注释
This wedge that Bitcoin is in appears to be pretty meaningful. The top resistance can be connected back to previous points that caused major drops. These converging lines could indicate that a major move is about to occur, and it could possibly be a reversal if we break out of those resistance lines. Not to get anyone’s hopes up, since the market has been very disappointing all year, but geometrically it would make sense. We may have to touch the bottom of the wedge first in order for this to happen. Just speculating here. 注释
Oops, my lines got shifted. Better example: 注释
NANO looks like it's about to break down below support. These are the possible scenarios I'm seeing for Bitcoin in the near-term. These scenarios are drawn to mimic the 2014 bear market bottom a bit. Both of these are long term bullish, but Bitcoin may actually never recover (always a possibility, but doubtful). 注释
If the green scenario happens (bounce off the 200W EMA and break out from both resistance lines), we should target the descending triangle resistance (dark red), which may cap us for a while until we retest the low. If the yellow scenario happens, extreme low prices would provide enough fuel for us to bounce back to 4K rather quickly, before consolidating and forming a solid price floor.注释
NANO needs to hold this level to avoid testing the lows.注释
New Bitcoin analysis: 
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We are now starting to dip below the broken resistance, which is a bad sign for the market. This is what I hinted at with this analysis (I was leaning bearish). We’d need this to be a bear trap move in order to move higher. There is a chance for this to happen, but things look pretty bleak at the moment. If NANO breaks it’s 2300 support, we will likely head straight down to 1200.注释
Bulls have managed to push NANO back above resistance for now, but this Bitcoin rise is on low volume. Usually when we get a low volume move coming into the weekend, it doesn’t bode well. NANO should head up to 2600ish if it’s gojng to stay bullish, and Bitcoin (Bitfinex) needs to break out above 3580-3600 on high volume. The market doesn’t look like it wants to go up yet though.注释
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A quick update, since some interesting things are happening. We broke the 2300 support but have yet to break the $0.75 support that has held since August. I would absolutely pay attention to what happens here. If we can continue to hold here and make a new high (ideally breaking the $1.10 resistance), that will be a good sign. If we break back above 2300 with volume, it’ll be a sign that the market wants to move up for now. On the other hand, a break below $0.75 would be pretty catastrophic for NANO, since it’s a strong psychological support.注释
So it looks like we can still call this an accumulation phase, since what we did was test an area slightly below the horizontal support. This actually often happens at the end of the accumulation, according to Wyckoff...although I don’t follow that theory that much usually.注释
NANO is looking weak again, but if Bitcoin can break up here, we should see a double bottom forming here. If not, NANO may indeed fall to new lows, since we're below the previous support.注释
Since Bitcoin has held, the double bottom idea is playing out nicely so far.注释
Well, we've slid down again, and NANO is continuing to look a bit weak. The Binance bug has really caused some confidence to evaporate from this project in the near term. If we get another piece of bad news, it should be enough to break us down through this descending triangle and send us back to the August lows on the Bitcoin ratio. Potential bad news may even include a delisting from Binance. NANO has always struggled with exchange implementation and unfortunately this will be a serious hinderance in terms of adoption. NANO must overcome this obstacle if it's going to succeed.注释
On the other hand, if the bug is fixed and Bitcoin breaks to the upside, we should see NANO head back to the $1 area at least.注释
Small update - still looking weak...much weaker than most other alts at this time. However, we are still well above the $0.75 support, so no need to panic yet. Indeed, it’s concerning that we’re still actually being capped by the same descending resistance (in pink). Any attempt to rally above it is met with strong selling. Much of the recent volume has been big sellers, so its possible they know something that we don’t. If NANO can get some positive exposure though, we could have a serious breakout to the upside, as much of the sellers will have been flushed out. This is how big players test the market during accumulation. However, given how the chart is looking, I think a major breakdown is easily possible, so best to be cautious. Bitcoin can continue going up while NANO maintains the $0.75 support, if the ratio fails to hold.注释
New analysis: 
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