做空

wave (4) is under way ?

由wsbza提供

已更新

my target area is near the lower yellow dash channel line

注释

short-term target for wave iii or c

注释

idealised possible wave (4) patterns

注释

flat c or running triangle c ?

注释

5880 is the level to keep bull alive, preferred count in white, alter in yellow

注释

possible ending diagonal for alter count

注释

look at the big picture again

注释

the ending diagonal chart might work, took a small short with tight stop

注释

still going

注释

交易开始

took a short with a stop against recent high

注释

could be a very small degree c wave, also could be the start of a much larger degree decline

注释

Since we have an extended wave 3, I would expect a shallow wave 4 pull back, possibly around 23.6% of wave 3 at 6362, this is also near the end of wave (iv) of blue wave {5} of yellow wave 3.
An immediate push above the recent high of 7036 would probably argue the extended wave 3 is still unfolding.

注释

looks like a 5-waves decline is at its later stage
If this 5-waves is A then we should expect a B wave rally
if this 5-waves is a larger degree 1) then we should also expect wave 2) bounce

took some profit and moved my stop to breakeven for the remaining positions
A corrective rally may offer more chances to dance with bears

注释

yellow count suggests another modest push to complete wave v of (c) of {b}
pink count suggests (w)-(x)-(y) for {b} is done

the key level is 6937, a sharp decline below this would signal further downside potential

注释

if it turns out to be a triangle wave 4, we can assume the wave count like this

注释

potential reversal to the upside

交易开始

short-term buy for the upside

注释

we still cannot rule out the possibility of another wave c decline in the short-term
protective stop to break-even point

注释

I am still inclined towards a triangle wave 4

交易手动结束

注释

structural support at 6292

注释

break above 7005 would suggest bullish {i }-{ii}-(i )(ii) scenario

注释

big picture

注释

we can raise our key support to blue wave (ii) low at 6819

注释

raise key support level to wave (i) high at 7005 as blue wave (iv) correction (if happens) should not breach this level
short-term blue wave (iii) target at 7579 which is the 1.618 extension level

also note grey wave iii has traveled 2.618 times the length of grey wave i

ALTERNATIVE Count
- blue wave (i) = red wave {iii}, blue wave (ii) = red wave {iv}
- blue wave (i) = wave c of red wave {i} of an ending diagonal
- blue wave (i) = wave w of red wave {i} of an ending diagonal

注释

The short-term pattern remains bullish
recent decline from 7227 to 7071 was in 3 waves, looks like wave iv of (iii) is in place, or at least sub wave a of iv of (iii) is done

note
- wave iv has retraced within 38%-50% range
- price briefly touched i-ii-iii trend channel then it bounced impulsively
- we can also use ii-iii-iv trend channel to project the end of wave v of (iii)