Waiting for that NFLX Short

2018年6月6日Netflix risk is very high and reward very low. Worst of the FANG stocks for sure. Netflix has almost doubled this year with no mean reversion or accumulation of volume A pullback on netflix could see it lose 75% of its value if it returns to weekly volume node.

I wouldn't usually short such a big gainer as NFLX, but the opportunity could present itself if it continues to rise as a parabola could short when that parabola breaks. I would watch for major momentum shifts downward, blow off tops, and break in upward trendlines to find long-term shorts with good R:R.

Somewhat unrelated but if the global market goes bearish long term, Netflix would see the largest downside of the FANG stocks. I am not doom and gloom on the market or anything. I think finding some short opportunities both short term and long term is a good way to keep capital safe from unexpected market swings so we should always keep it on our minds and allocate some earnings to bearish plays when opportunity arises.

By the way. Great alternative to NFLX in entertainment space is DIS:
- Netflix net income: $671 million
- Disney net income: $11.5 billion
- Netflix market cap: $160 billion
- Disney market cap: $149 billion
Disney is at major support here, and a break down from a symmetrical wedge on the weekly is unlikely. Disney is generally safer being long established and dividend stock, but especially safe and bullish right now per its chart.

2018年6月8日

评论

Disney doing great since this post. Still waiting for that entry opportunity on NFLX.

2018年6月18日

评论

Still waiting for that short entry

2018年7月2日

评论

netflix arguably opened below parabola. bear div on the weekly timeframe. Could be a good place to sell any netflix you own . Would not short here of course

2018年7月18日

评论

On Friday 7/13 NFLX closed the weekly candle below the parabola @ 395.8 This was our short entry. Sadly I was out of town so I didnt take it.