Nifty: as it stands out now

2023年3月20日

Swetha madam shared today one nice observation about a down slopping channel in Nifty since last 3 months.
Extending the analysis with a few other observations with some more price-action tools.

Swetha madam's charing:
My charting:

Observations:

• H&S formation with a base at 16800. So for the sake of price-action, 16800 has to be retested. This is 2nd time testing after 29-Sept'22.
  
• If I plot an Elliot Wave then this down trending channel is the correction A-B-C waves. We are in "C" subwave as it seems.
  
• Why "C" ? - because we are below 23% Fib number from Top. (ATH)
  
• Does the 16800 end of Wave-C? - Well: Watch out for a Daily RSI positive divergence. If that happens it will be a upward move for sure.
  
• If upmove happens how far? - None knows. It depends on the degree of divergence (i.e how far price needs to move up to match the RSI).
  
• What's the chance of a breakdown? - Well: if I check the volume profile - the Volume Profile Point-of-Control (PoC) it way far - 17900. Throughout the channel -- the volume profile PoC is at middle of the channel.
  
• Specially below 17600 (Fib 38%) the volume profile does not show control zone, muted participation.
  
• So most likely, the attack to 16800 won't be strong and it will be hold as support.
  

What would be best for Trending Nifty

* Let price consolidates around 17300-16800 for long time (time correction).
* Volume profile PoC will be shifted gradually toways 17000 levels.
* A clear RSI divergence (+ve or -ve) to be appeared in Nifty daily, preferably in weekly closing.
* Perfect for trending .. up or down .. based on direction of divergence.