Nifty and Banknifty for 19th April
India on Saturday saw yet another record high of Covid-19 cases in last 24 hours with 2,34,692 fresh Covid cases and 1,341 deaths. Global amrkets were good but that does not have any bearing on our local markets as of now.
1) On last Friday, FIIs and DIIs both were net buyers in Equity worth 437 Crs and 657 Crs respectively. This had happened on 7th & 8th April also so not a rare occurrence. FIIs’ gross purchase was 7512 Crs and Gross Sales were worth 7074 Crs. So if you see, only around 6% more (than sales figures) were purchase figures. In futures, FIIs were net buyers in both, index futures (by only 54.7 Crs) and in stock futures (by 1049 Crs). So FIIs were merely trading on Friday. Ditto with DIIs. Both neither engaged in active buying or active selling-meaning markets can go anywhere if we just look at these figures.
2) Nifty option chain- On PUT side, highest Put writing (16,532 lots) is seen on 14600 strike whereas total OI is highest on 14000 strike (30,339 lots). 2nd highest total OI (25,605 lots) and 2nd highest Put (11,166 lots) writing both are seen at 14500 strike. So 14500 looks like OK support, if covid situation improves impressively, otherwise this support does NOT have any meaning. On CALL side, 3rd highest total OI (23,006 lots; in fact 2nd highest total OI is almost same at 23023 lots) and highest Call writing (12,368 lots) is seen at 14800 strike. And yes I would accept it as good resistance due to covid fears.
3) On charts, there is one interesting observation- Nifty fell by 230 points on 5th April (low was almost 400 points below previous close), it fell by 524 points on 12th April ( low was 590 points below previous close) and both were Mondays! Will we see a repetition of that on 19th – another Monday? I don’t know. But surely, given ever worsening Covid situation, I can’t certainly be bullish. Another observation, Nifty's doji candle on last friday is coming down from mid line of Bollinger band, meaning it did face resistance at mid line and started going down. It is now a ‘Sell on rise market’. So one can Sell at resistances marked (R1 at 14700; R2 remains same)and can buy with extreme caution even at buying areas with strict stop loss.
Disclaimer: I have sold Call options in Nifty.
1) On last Friday, FIIs and DIIs both were net buyers in Equity worth 437 Crs and 657 Crs respectively. This had happened on 7th & 8th April also so not a rare occurrence. FIIs’ gross purchase was 7512 Crs and Gross Sales were worth 7074 Crs. So if you see, only around 6% more (than sales figures) were purchase figures. In futures, FIIs were net buyers in both, index futures (by only 54.7 Crs) and in stock futures (by 1049 Crs). So FIIs were merely trading on Friday. Ditto with DIIs. Both neither engaged in active buying or active selling-meaning markets can go anywhere if we just look at these figures.
2) Nifty option chain- On PUT side, highest Put writing (16,532 lots) is seen on 14600 strike whereas total OI is highest on 14000 strike (30,339 lots). 2nd highest total OI (25,605 lots) and 2nd highest Put (11,166 lots) writing both are seen at 14500 strike. So 14500 looks like OK support, if covid situation improves impressively, otherwise this support does NOT have any meaning. On CALL side, 3rd highest total OI (23,006 lots; in fact 2nd highest total OI is almost same at 23023 lots) and highest Call writing (12,368 lots) is seen at 14800 strike. And yes I would accept it as good resistance due to covid fears.
3) On charts, there is one interesting observation- Nifty fell by 230 points on 5th April (low was almost 400 points below previous close), it fell by 524 points on 12th April ( low was 590 points below previous close) and both were Mondays! Will we see a repetition of that on 19th – another Monday? I don’t know. But surely, given ever worsening Covid situation, I can’t certainly be bullish. Another observation, Nifty's doji candle on last friday is coming down from mid line of Bollinger band, meaning it did face resistance at mid line and started going down. It is now a ‘Sell on rise market’. So one can Sell at resistances marked (R1 at 14700; R2 remains same)and can buy with extreme caution even at buying areas with strict stop loss.
Disclaimer: I have sold Call options in Nifty.
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