NKE H&S

2018年12月19日

NKE looks weak in today's rally, earning coming up tomorrow after close. Apparel has not done well this earnings season, declining margins. NKE is no exception. Revenue increase has primarily been overseas, and the Chinese economy has taken a hit this fall.

Going over the numbers, P/E ratio is over 25 (adjusting for the big tax hit), dividends 1.75%. Overvalued regardless of this earnings, expect this to wind up in the low $60's after earnings.

If you want a cheaper play than NKE puts, try UAA or XRT. You can even do a vertical spread tomorrow afternoon on weekly puts on either one to limit your exposure. If NKE goes down, I expect the whole sector to go down on Friday. Both UAA and XRT have room to drop to next support.

2018年12月19日

注释

This is why shorting crappy companies is better than going long on a good company, you don't have to worry about getting whipsawed.

I flipped the UAA and XRT puts, and rolled into lower price NKE options (strictly with NKE profits from today!). Now I get to play NKE earnings for free.

Awesome day for me.

2018年12月20日

注释

Up $5 AH, this is why I always recommend taking profits and flipping puts to a lower strike. Lost my NKE profits for the day, oh well.

Stock is overpriced, but an obvious short squeeze in the making. Done playing with it.

2018年12月21日

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Obvious fail, but FB saves my day, lol.

Get greedy get burned, should've just taken the pre-earnings profit and run. I'm an idiot on this one. But hey, UAA and XRT went down anyways, lol.

2018年12月22日

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NKE now has room to drop, thinking I should have bought puts on this gap.

Do people really think an apparel company is recession proof?

2018年12月24日

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Did not buy puts Friday, wish I had. Would have gotten all of my profits back.
Pretty typical in a bear market to give up gaps quickly. Still overpriced, H&S still valid.

I have no positions, all cash including 401k going into Xmas. I'll be sleeping easy tonight....

Merry Xmas.