At a glance, the Nasdaq looks robust, but if you remove the influence of the MAG 7 (the biggest tech companies), the landscape changes. Take NVDA NVDA -1.01%↓ , for example, which gained an impressive 7% yesterday. This is largely due to the upcoming 10:1 stock split on June 10, 2024, which is driving market enthusiasm. However, we urge caution, as these events can often lead to a "sell the news" scenario.
While this may keep the Nasdaq buoyant for a while, we're also keeping an eye on a bearish rising wedge pattern since April 22, 2024, which suggests a potential minimum drop to the 18,000 level. It's a waiting game from here on out.
The C Correction: What to Expect
Our analysis of past patterns indicates a retest of the 2021 all-time high (ATH). However, we present three alternative scenarios:
1. Testing the Bull Market Support Band: This would see a drop to around 18,000.
2. Running Flat Correction: A less severe correction, leveling off at the same point as Correction A.
3. 2021 ATH Expanded Flat: A more deep outlook, where the market corrects to the 2021 ATH.
We'll be closely monitoring the market's behavior, particularly volume and candle development, to determine which level the correction will reach.