做多

Nasdaq NQ1!) - LONG ... Then Short!

已更新

This thing is taking off here, as expected. Load up!
The chart ought to be self explanatory. (March is usually bad for equities, just keep that in mind.)
USD strength is major factor here which should keep a nice strong lid on this, later on.

Here is a closeup;

注释

Here is a closeup of the action;

One would expect a brief pullback - early next week? - before its off to the races.

注释

A second chance to enter LONG here;

All aboard!! ...

注释

Here is the rest

注释

Fully loaded here!!

LONG

注释

Loading, loading, ...

... loading. Up, up and away, we're going.

交易开始

SHORT

注释

Look to go Short soon, but wait for it!!
So far, this was the best trade of the year. (Although, I played it in the S&P500. Bought 200x of the ESJ 4200C twice, both times @3.75 and dumped them all just now - perhaps a tad too early - @7.75, for a net profit of +$87,250, in 24 hrs!.) I've also pushed +12x NQ off of that 11838 stop hunt until I dumped it all yesterday off of the other, 13000.00 stop hunt.)
March didn't disappoint, so far, running on all cylinders, up +31.28%, for the month. :-)

注释

SHORT

交易结束：到达目标

Chances of an Index rally are quite high here because of this;

Switched to LONG for now with extremely tight stops!

交易手动结束

FLAT for now.

交易开始

Massive SHORT

注释

This sucker is done!

LEAN INTO IT!! - SHORT

注释

Chances are ...

交易开始

SHORT

注释

This thing is now within 2% of some considerable resistance;

It's probably a good time to line up some Sell Stops - for SHORT entries - just below it.

注释

This is NOT a suggestion to get (naked) short, here;

Rather, this is just a warning that if equities are going to turn any time soon (which is likely) then it is likely to start around here.
However, the Nasdaq/SP500 does look like rather "topish", e.g., a good place for a Short Entry for the spread - NQ/ES Short. (Market internals are also negative with a continued narrowing in leadership - nVidia accounting for 34% of the gains!)
A side note; The two major casualties of any newly developing global trend will likely to be 1) "A.I."; 2) EVs. But that's a whole other story, deserving their own, separate posts. (A lot could be said about the "Why", for both.)

注释

The very simple (yet, reliable) math;

SHORT

注释

This is in a very precarious position here;

A -45% decline from here would be inline with the minimal necessary retreat to represent historically reliable returns on full-cycle investments!
SHORT

注释

An other telling spread to look at is this one;

... which is clearly in a down-trend.
Normally, this one should be in an up-trend if one was to anticipate future S&P strength but (way!) over-leverage being where it is, this is also indicative of the massive de-levering that must take place before any fundamental value is represented by any of the equity indexes. (I.e. a -50% indexes decline, at some point before the next cycle, is a foregone conclusion!)

交易开始

Looking to go SHORT on any reversal here.

注释

Sell Stops @15960 for the next couple of hours.

注释

Ought to be SHORT here, already;

... and well on it's way.

注释

DJIA/Gold;

Interestingly, this eerily (but not all that surprisingly) matches exactly the projected 12 year (full-cycle; correlation coeff. -> 0 in 12.5 years) nominal return of a traditional portfolio mix (60/30/10 SP500 + T-Bonds + T-Bills). E.g., The DJIA (and the SP500 and the Nasdaq) is expected to lose 56% of it's value. (Those are all expected to end up in the same place.)

注释

Upon closer examination of the DJIA/Gold (above);

There is already a clearly visible break (dispersion) in this spread - normally an indication of equities falling into a 'stochastic sink'. (Translation: Narrow equities leadership aimlessly jumping around before a radical shift, e.g. a phase-transition)

注释

Just a reminder;

... where we are here.

注释

US (and World) Equity Indexes are in full rotation;

... at the end of which they all point to the mid-2019 lows - I.e, -50%, across the board. (Nasdaq leadership works both ways! ;-)

注释

... as for the myth of "cash on the sidelines" ... That has got to be one of the most absurd yet, enduring self-deluding nonsense on Wall street.

1) When the Central Banks create cash, it will stay exactly in that form (cash) until it is withdrawn from the system - i.e., the cash which was created to start with. Period.
I.e., it does not enhance, nor does it discourage speculation, the economy or anything else for that matter, in any shape, form or fashion!
The most basic fact: "Every buyer requires a seller."
E.g., The moment a security changes hands it does not alter the balance of cash - or the supply of a given security -, within the system, on the "sidelines" or anywhere else. Someone has to hold any given security at all times until it is retired! - The exact same truth applies for cash. (I.e., any excess liquidity remains just that, without ever changing form until it is withdrawn in the exact same form as it was issued.

2) Speculators will speculate regardless of circumstances, until they don't!
E.g., Speculation is a psychological phenomena (a mental state; Greed/Fear), immune to exogenous circumstances! (I.e, to economic factors, Fed. policy, etc.)
It ought to be more than sufficient to convince oneself of this fundamental fact just by reviewing the zero (0) correlation of Fed. actions relative to market outcomes, during every single instance in history, without exception. (... which is why market crashes occur when speculators stop speculating, without the necessity to invoke any other, exogenous reason. People just need to tell stories to themselves - and each other - no matter how absurd or misguided the content of such undertaking may be. Otherwise; "The 'story' would be taken out of History".)

注释

Chances are ...;

In the case of triple market tops, the 3rd top falls short >80% of the times.

交易结束：到达目标

Simultaneously with covering the Shorts in the SP500

... covered the Shorts here, as well, for +760 pts profit.
FLAT, for now.

注释

Looks like a Head & Shoulders in the making;

交易开始

(Continued) SHORT

What a perfect hit - Short Entry - looks like (so far)

注释

Nothing has changed. Continue to ride it SHORT, like a rented mule!

Here are the rest of the indexes - confirming each other;

Traveling by-the-numbers, exactly! - As this has been doing for about a year, by now.
Continue to lean into it Short!

p.s. For some strange reason there seems to be a debate out there whether a H&S exists in the SP500? ...
"It doesn't really matter", would be one correct answer, since the Russel2000 has completed one, already! E.g. all equities are in a confirmed, full dive!