NTDOY to 90$ in 2021? (Swing and Long term trade idea)

2021年3月14日

I have been in a NTDOY swing earlier this year catching the run from November to Jan. For some odd reason (and I know we shouldn't trade on emotion) I kind of miss holding NTDOY. So, I had told myself I would look into a long-term entry at some point in time in 2021.

Fundamentals:
> Pays a nice dividend (although fluctuating based on profit)
> Not a Sony, not an XBox -- but better? The flagship switch is a handheld + a TV plug-in console. Meanwhile, Nintendo holds great nostalgic IP with Mario, Zelda and gang, which makes it a product millennial parents want to return to for their kids too.
> Theme park -- Although not the scale of Disney, Nintendo's partnership with Universal will lead to the opening of parks across Tokyo (opened now) Florida, Hollywood, and Singapore by 2025. Unlike Disney where they keep the revenue, Nintendo's deal appears to be mainly through licensing. But, more than how much revenue Nintendo can make here, the big shift is how Nintendo is diversifying. This is what you want to see in a long-term stock.
> Cathie Wood -- ARKK was investing big on NTDOY from the Nov drop and kept buying the stock consistently until March, which is when they started selling a little. A quick look at ARKK's holdings and you note Nintento is still a top 25 holding as off March 11, while (and I manually calculated this seeing they sold a little on March 11 and 12) -- they hold roughly about 4,595,000 shares of NTDOY in their portfolio today. This tells me that while Nintendo isn't viewed as Tesla style innovation play, there are still big things expected from their expanding eco-system in order to create value.
> It doesn't end at the Switch. Nintendo has been rumored to be launching a new Nintendo Switch 2 (Switch Pro) device. This was expected to be announced Q1 2021, but with COVID, this has been pushed to 2022.

Strategies:

Swing:
I am not getting into a swing here. But, for anyone interested, it's not a bad set up in my opinion. From where the stock is at present, there could be a 14% upside in the coming month.
Enter - $69-70
Profit target: 14% upside with 80$ Profit target
SL set just below 64$

Long-term strategy (hold until 2022 or beyond):
I expect some risks towards summer of 2021 (or later in the year?), which could see the price in the range of 57-62$ for a great long-term entry.
I would personally think for a long-term strategy, enter in the $68-70 range as an initial position and dollar cost average down if the weakness comes through. NTDOY is just bouncing off the 200 MA currently, so you're not buying at a high starting price.

Compared to many other gaming stocks, Nintendo is well-aged and reliable and still very relevant. It is a slower moving stock than some other gaming stocks, but if you're looking for a reliable long-term play, this seems like a great dividend paying play to keep in the bag.

Good luck traders.