reversal trading, medium risk.

2018年10月15日

4hr: Zones between 0.635 and 0.665 have lots of overlaps in resistance(horizontal, fib and 200ema).
RSI is oversold on the 4hr, but not the daily. We're in a short term uptrend and a long term downtrend.
RSI divergence may signal weakening bulls and possible reversal of short term uptrend.

Entered a short at 0.635, if price reaches 0.66, will place a bigger short position.

Note that nzd is in a trend of weakening amidst the trade war. Personally, I believe cad's weakness is also due for a correction as the nafta fud have passed, and there's no strong fundamental for its weakness.
All these points to continuation in downside, and i speculate this upwards impulse is a correction.

2018年10月15日

注释

Closed 80% of my position for a small profit at 0.85, looking for a bear flag or a double top confirmation at ~0.855, where i can short aggressively.

Still hold my belief that the zone highlighted is the area for reversal.

2018年10月15日

注释

Do keep in mind that the CPI for NZD is in 6hrs. A trick is to place ur limit order at key area of resistance aka 0.655

The CPI/GDP of nzd pales in comparison to the scale of the effect that the trade war has. Any sharp rises will be speculative. Expect a continuation of lower highs.