KelvinM93

PANW cup and handle forming leading into earnings

做多
NASDAQ:PANW   Palo Alto Networks, Inc.
PANW here is forming a very nice cup and handle leading into earnings next week.

Personal Checklist for positive move to the upside
1. PANW has long history of gap ups post earnings by under promising and overperforming
2. Technicals/momentum support the upside move in the short term
3. Nasdaq must hold the 290-300 range in the coming week, if so we need to see panw hold the top end of the descending trend from 2022 (160 range) near the .5 fib
4. PANW has posted 2 quarters of GAAP profitability, another profitable post will place it 1 step closer to inclusion into the SPY (positive catalyst moving into next earnings)

Indicators are on it's side for a move to the upside, imo we should see a short term pullback based on recent macro headwinds and overall sentiment on the nasdaq falling in the recent days.
Earnings will be everything with this move, key now is guidance moving forward.
  • If guidance is raised or positive enough that they are anticipating posting a 4th quarter of gaap profitability staying with their current revenue targets then a move to the upside is likely as there might be a fomo front run for a SPY inclusion
    PANW additionally noted previous earnings that they are mostly insulated from the dollar outperforming other currencies as all billings are denoted in USD. Companies will surely be reducing costs and we could hear that come into play during the call, but reducing security posture/architecture moving into a highly volatile timeframe is likely the worst path to take from a PR standpoint in case of any data breaches
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