PBR Base Formation with Upside Target Zone

Please fix the label as "LONG" instead of "NEUTRAL". Thank you.

PBR has had a long bear market this year, falling from over $32 to under $18 along with a massive slide in the Brazilian stock market. PBR is a major element of the Brazilian stock market.

The sellers have knocked down the price of PBR to bargain-basement levels, but it has been like a falling safe.

What has happened to the shares over the past three months is a base-formation has formed. Although we are at the top end of that base formation, the key is that the base formation seems solid. The downtrend was violated (see the downtrend channel) and the base has been formed (notice the lower volume, on average, in the down days) and now we can project up quite a ways for a rally.

Be prepared for some volatility as the stock can move 10% in the course of three days. Keep position size down. I will build into a position over a period of days and will leave stock to buy in 5% corrections.

Tim West, 5:00PM EST, Monday, July 30, 2012