Valuation Shmaluation: the SHOP salt mine

2020年5月25日

Yall really grinding out the salt on SHOP based on valuation. OK.

Price action has pretty consistently lined up with fib extensions from the late-2019 range.
Massive gap up on earnings straight into the COVID selloff - where would it be if not for that? Well, probably right where it is today.
RSI(14) did not go oversold at the depths of the selloff, and did not test the lows of the late-2019 range.

Recent price action looks like a breakout from the 4.236 extension.
You can't explain away the sustained volume increase and relative strength vs SPX with a bunch of Robinhood noobs piling in.

Does 1050 make a lick of sense? Absolutely not. Is it where SHOP is going? Yea, probably.

Or you could keep grinding salt.

2020年6月9日

交易结束：到达止损

Got stopped out of the trade after this setup ate sh*t pretty hard the next day after I posted, and never recovered. Firmly in failed breakout territory at this point, though RSI is back in the 50s after today's session and there's enough interest in this listing that retaking 770 is not entirely out of the question this week. Below 700 and look out below...

2020年6月18日

注释

Did not have this on my radar for re-entry buuuut looks like the original thesis is still intact.

2020年7月1日

注释

Congrats if you held on through the shakeout!

2020年7月6日

注释

1050 premarket this morning. This was a very swift move and will likely need some time to consolidate here before a decision on where to go next. Take your profits today if you stayed in!