SMCI Short Trade Setup

7月19日

SMCI broke below a longer term bear flag today, but it's hard to say if the trade works or not yet. However, semis have been getting hammered and this is a longer term pattern so I like the odds. I took some puts when it tested the trendline, target is the bottom end where the trend started around $675.

8月2日

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What an elevator. One of the best trades of my entire career. I still believe $360 is coming.

8月6日

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RIP 💀

I think that earnings release is all she wrote, as if it wasn't already completely toast. Now it'll really get started crashing all the way back down to the 2023 consolidation area from about $360 - $230 that served as a launch pad for this blow off top rally we've seen since last November. I'd imagine it will chop around in that area for quite some time until a major market bottom is put in, perhaps in late 2025 or 2026.

8月28日

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SMCI now only about $60 from my $350 target. Big dump after hours after NVDA earnings and more trouble ahead with the Hindenburg report.

It happens quick, there will be others.