S&P Bear Market Fast and Furious

2020年3月15日

So, obviously S&P, like oil, is just smashing thru support levels whether they are horizontal lines or trendlines or moving averages. No discrimination going on here. I'm not going to talk about corona virus or black swan events because, like everything else, this too gets priced in to the market and shall pass. Technically we are in a Bear Market and a few things to remember is when trends reverse they can retrace 50%. Bear markets on average I believe fall about 33% and the last two bear markets (2000, 2008) from peak -to- trough were close to 50% respectively, give or take. Certainly there can be big up days and up weeks in a Bear market (pull backs, reversion to means) just like there are down times in a Bull Market but, make no mistake, this is what a Reversal looks like. From its recent peak, 50% on the S&P would bring us very close to the peaks of 2000 and 2008. The next support I see is at around 2300 and 2130 give or take. I'd like to note that momentum on a weekly time frame , which is what I have here, has not even gone negative yet. This is just all the positive momentum coming out so far. Even tho the market broke the 200 ema and trendline I outlined, it could catch a bounce here at the current levels but ultimately I think lower and so far it's been nothing short of fast and furious.