SPX stimulus rally before full on collapse?
The SPX was up 9.38% on 3/24 on the expectation that Senate will pass ~2T stimulus bill soon. Any market should rise when approximalty 10% of the countries GDP will be infused into the economy. Unfortunately, my current thesis suggests that ~2T won't be enough, and it may take multiples of this to slow the economic collapse.
Technically, there are two retracement points that look good for an entry to the next leg down. The first at $2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565 (+4.8%). I believe this techical set up with the upcoming fundamentals will play out very well to the downside. Caution: if SPX rises above $2,616 then I would call this opportunity invalid.
My expectation is that one or both of the technical points will be completed before April 3rd. To be very specific I am currnetly thinking they will reach one or both of the targets before the market opens on the 26th of March which is when the US unemployment claims data comes out, which I believe will be a startling number, one for the ages (or the following week). On April 1st we will see the ISM manufacutring index which should print one of the lowest of all time, maybe ever... until April reports. This will present a stark relization to the market and the country that COVID-19 is much more of a problem then the Gov't is currently stating.
I don't believe Trump's quote from today's Fox interview where he stated "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,". I believe it will be quite the opposite. If I am wrong and the US isn't shut down like China or Italy by April 12th then GOD help us as it will only get worse.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
Technically, there are two retracement points that look good for an entry to the next leg down. The first at $2,490 (+1.7%) and the second at $2,565 (+4.8%). I believe this techical set up with the upcoming fundamentals will play out very well to the downside. Caution: if SPX rises above $2,616 then I would call this opportunity invalid.
My expectation is that one or both of the technical points will be completed before April 3rd. To be very specific I am currnetly thinking they will reach one or both of the targets before the market opens on the 26th of March which is when the US unemployment claims data comes out, which I believe will be a startling number, one for the ages (or the following week). On April 1st we will see the ISM manufacutring index which should print one of the lowest of all time, maybe ever... until April reports. This will present a stark relization to the market and the country that COVID-19 is much more of a problem then the Gov't is currently stating.
I don't believe Trump's quote from today's Fox interview where he stated "I would love to have the country opened up and raring to go by Easter,". I believe it will be quite the opposite. If I am wrong and the US isn't shut down like China or Italy by April 12th then GOD help us as it will only get worse.
Stay Safe...
just_a_guy
Disclaimer: The opinions and ideas presented by just_a_guy are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed to represent trading or investment advice.
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