What If Everyone is Wrong?

It seems the bulk of people either expect to see a crash or a blow off coming soon. I find myself wondering what it might look like if the market can successfully make a fool out of most people.

I think this choppy wave 4 set up would suffice.

First a dump to 3800.
Then a rally to 4500.
Then a strong and persistent breakout to 3200.

This could catch a broad number of people.

Bears would get over exposed into the 3800 drop. Shorting a rally aggressively.
Bulls would think the blow off was baked in around 4500, buying the high.
Bears would think themselves victorious at 3200.
By the time the real blow off area fills, no one is calling for it.

And if they are, who care? No one - because they've been wrong for so long.

It'd be the perfect trap to most efficiently catch the maximum number of people.

Here's a more detailed forecast of the choppy wave 4.