Oil an Commodities to Outperform US Equities Going Forward

2022年1月11日

We have a similar setup to the dot.com bubble peak forming currently in the S&P 500 to crude oil price ratio. This ratio can be thought of (the value of financial assets) / (the value of real assets) since energy prices are so influential on the manufacture, mining, and shipping of almost all real goods. The analog shows that the stock market should have already cracked if not for the unprecedented fiscal and monetary support, which is now being withdrawn due to the inflation it has caused.

The risk-to-reward ratio strongly favors commodities and commodity producers going forward.