SPX Secular Bull LT View March 2017

已更新

2700 max extension into 2018

注释

This would work perfectly under the scenario where Primary Wave 1 ended in 2010 at around 1219 and Primary Wave 2 was an irregular ABC/running correction. Then applying P5=1.618P1 leads to....2700, sometime by mid 2018

注释

In this best scenario, I could structure the count this way:

P1 667-1220 March 2009/April 2010
P2 1220-1075 April 2010/Oct 2011 which formed as running correction due to B wave extension caused by QE2
P3 1075-2135 Oct 2011/May 2015 extended Wave due to QE global
P4 2135-1810 May 2015/Feb 2016 normal ABC
P5 1810-around 2700 Feb 2016/1H 2018 ED/impulse

注释

From economic perspective you need to see housing activity declining. Different this cycle has been that housing was late to emerge, only in 2011 so 2 years later and is moving slowly up, so it is the largest reason this eco cycle has been longer but flatter. So you need rates to go up sufficiently to kill housing which currently not there.