SPX - PullBack - Feds Credible Threat?

2019年7月31日

BLUF: Short Term SPX Pullback / Long Term SPX 3100 end of 2019 beyond that too many variables!

FOMC Press Conf today at 2 PM: Depending on the Feds decision & proceeding actions...you may see the Feds Credible Threat taken down and the idea of "Perception" greatly degraded regardless of beliefs/politics! When we look back, there are always many "Inflection Points," this will be one of them...the world is different now Mr. Bonds, Mr. Market, Mr. T, Mr. Fed...Adapt or Die!

Points of Interest:
1) Debt Ceiling...Senate passess? Liquidity flows/Govy Spending cranks up...Good for the economy!
2) Tradewar...will only drag out, no solution and its net ever expanding!
3) Iran/China/Russia...Oil!
4) Rate Cuts...what do they know that we do not? What are the incentives and who control them? Everyone is incentivized for their specific outcome!

Summation: Two words do not come out of my mouth....Never & Always! They NEVER let me down! Engineering the economy....we really really are not that smart!!! Cheers enjoy your summer...I am!

2019年7月31日

注释

Today's Bright Idea!!!

Data can’t say anything about an issue any more than a hammer can build a house or almond meal can make a macaron. Data is a necessary ingredient in discovery, but you need a human to select it, shape it, and then turn it into an insight. Data is therefore only as useful as its quality and the skills of the person wielding it.

We need to question data rather than assuming that just because we’ve assigned a number to something that it’s suddenly the cold, hard Truth. When you encounter a study or dataset, I urge you to ask: What might be missing from this picture? What’s another way to consider what happened? And what does this particular measure rule in, rule out, or incentivize?

2019年7月31日

注释

Increased Private Debt = Decreased Inflation, Decreased Wages, Decreased Demand....The Feds attempt to lower FFR a decision to try and boost demand...Steve Keen!

2019年7月31日

注释

"A trimmed mean of primary dealer responses indicated that Treasury is anticipated to increase the supply of Treasury bills outstanding by $178 billion over the eight-week period following resolution of the current debt ceiling impasse. In comparison, primary dealers estimated market capacity to digest bill issuance without a significant price adjustment or deviation from fair value over the same period to be $210 billion. Furthermore, the primary dealers generally expected Treasury to resume meeting its cash balance policy at some point between September mid-month, related to the receipt of corporate taxes, and the end of the month. Committee members discussed the Treasury’s cash management policy, noting both the policy’s benefits related to risk management as well as the potential market disruptions that could occur if bill supply were increased too rapidly. Smith emphasized that Treasury carefully balances these considerations when making its issuance decisions. The Committee generally agreed that Treasury’s projected measured increases in bill supply balanced these factors well."

2019年8月1日

注释

FED talk explained

1) Contemplates = considering further cuts

2) 'act as appropriate' was retained = still in play, and

3) 'data dependence' phrase was not used = confirming it's external developments and inflation driving the ease.