SPX Roadmap Sep 2023

已更新

To get some panic going, market will most likely break the most obvious level of 4275 and spike the 200dma...

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And the 4275 got spiked yesterday

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So the low on Oct 4 was likely the low although there is a bit of a danger period post Oct OPEX. Lets see whether SPX retraces to 4300 next few days

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Next week will be crucial. It will be preferable to have a spike down Monday/Tuesday to below 200dma into 4125/4185 range and reversal from there

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Below these levels and that likely confirms the late July top as a B wave top

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If this undershoots, say makes a large wick and reverses up, most likely will be in the low 4000s, say 4020/4060 into late Oct/early Nov. BOJ and Fed meetings

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Today low looks a bit high, could be one more lower low

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Overnight, the min target levels have been reached. The yearly bull trend is around 4020 plus FIB retraces at around 4040, so that will be reasonable on more downside. Will not surprise me if 4020 gets tagged

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Getting there

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What a rebound from the expected levels. Algos do not sleep

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V shape cup

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The speed of recovery surprises me a bit

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1Q24 support is 4415/4500 and very likely will get tested in March if not earlier