Stocks/Commodities - Be Wary OfCelebrating Moscow Carnage
Whilst if you are one to pick sides, it may for now seem hilarious the situation unfolding in Russia, I would remind you that if indeed this does escalate into a civil war or even minor conflict you will see Oil, gas, fertiliser, metals, wheat & lumber all rise astronomically. In turn you will see bonds, stocks & crypto vaporise over the course of the next few weeks. Then when the FED steps in to "help" the dollar will also begin to vaporise.
We are at the very top of the range in an equity vs commodity super cycle, where the price of stocks vs commodities is close to all time highs. A simple mean reversion (return to 50 year average) sits some 47% to the downside for equities & upside for commodities.
Of course that doesn't mean equities need to make up the whole 47%, commodities will rise and likely meet in the middle. Either way, if you are enjoying things now & hoping for more carnage for Russia. Be careful when that carnage comes home on Sunday night when futures open.
We are at the very top of the range in an equity vs commodity super cycle, where the price of stocks vs commodities is close to all time highs. A simple mean reversion (return to 50 year average) sits some 47% to the downside for equities & upside for commodities.
Of course that doesn't mean equities need to make up the whole 47%, commodities will rise and likely meet in the middle. Either way, if you are enjoying things now & hoping for more carnage for Russia. Be careful when that carnage comes home on Sunday night when futures open.
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