做空

SPX500 - Market update and where we may be

已更新

All in the video, Vix and USOIL is also looked at. Today feels bullish, but under the hood there are some issues. We are at strong resistance here. Good luck!

注释

at the close they sold it, not sure it goes higher. see you tomorrow!

注释

good morning, no change from yesterday, waiting for the wedge to break down. It's possible to get one more high but I'm leaning towards a breakdown of the wedge this morning. With Powell today it could be a whippy few hours, but I'm still thinking ultimately this will go down.

注释

wedge broke down but they aren't going to give it up so easily. Either it keeps falling or we get to the secondary trendline (blue) first, but either way I believe the top is in (for now)

注释

a few things on the agenda today, most importantly the FOMC announcement at 2pm and Powell's speech at 2:30. If the market melts down before the 2pm announcement, people will generally see it as bullish and a "buy the dip" moment. Rarely does the announcement trigger a strong market move in the same direction the market was going, but today I think will be an exception.

注释

us.econoday.com/byweek.asp

注释

blue trendline could also be seen as being here

注释

nope, one more stab at the top of the wedge, sellers may defend 4200 here.

注释

it may not occur, but they may pop up over the wedge to trap bulls and take out more stops. After open most likely.

注释

looks like it needs one more move up.

注释

this is what the count currently looks like and my plan for trading today.

注释

waiting for another high to short, then it should drop into Powell, then a pump to complete the 5, and then down.

注释

if the count is correct I expect selling after the open.

注释

I changed the channel lines to better represent these tops. One more high after Powell is still expect but it doesn't have to happen.

注释

ok so we didn't go down, interesting, so then we have the possibility of a WXY correction - 2 ABC's in a row. Bears need to stop this soon if so.

注释

all mid time frame rsi are now reset to their highs.

注释

here's a better look at the structure.

注释

looks done to my eye. bear div now on hourly

注释

5 minute wedge just spiked through.

注释

shorts have exited put call .87

注释

Gap on SPY at 422, should get there, but I think it will be resistance.

注释

hourly RSI in previous chart close to previous peaks.

注释

i can't tell if that's it or not, but I can see the WXY on the SPY chart. Under 418 and we've definitely turned. With the FOMC another spike up is still possible.

注释

at support, bulls want to see this held.

注释

on SPX futures we're back below the channel we broke out of this morning. If we go lower, expect this channel to be tested with any announcement. I'm still thinking down, so something like this. Keep in mind this can be very wrong.

注释

backtest of channel, the line is interpretive and it could go higher esp after the announcement

注释

announcement at 2pm speech at 2:30 by J Powell - watch on youtube if you like - youtube.com/watch?v=wm4McpKTA7Y

注释

IWM not participating in the rally. Sometimes it's a leading indicator, but a possibility of one more high to touch the upper channel is still there.

注释

if true, first target is 4175

注释

SPY now lost channel support.

注释

as of now it looks like they will go higher to fill the spy gap, the 15 minute rsi needs to get high enough again. Unless things change it will end bullish.

注释

SPY needs to get under 418, if that happens it will breakdown, otherwise a gap fill today or tomorrow is probable. I'm out for the day - good luck!

注释

larger picture on SPX cash - we've gotten to a major resistance area and an area which has structural resistance. I will be surprised if they don't turn here but this is really a decision point for the market. Get through this and it's bullish for sure. I though the lower blue trendline would hold it back but no. We'll see how it looks tomorrow. Spy almost filled it's gap but not quite.

注释

ES futures, if they get above this, 4350 is probably next.

注释

Good morning, if correct this ABC looks finished. Numbers at 830 may influence it. AAPL after the bell will tell us more.

注释

Overthrow after 830 numbers is reasonable, but I expect the market to start coming down after that. Will update if we don't breakdown today at some point.

注释

VIX still in support zone also looks like ABC complete, or close to.

注释

830am pop

注释

18ma on the daily futures chart reached.

注释

one more pop at open could happen, then I think it cracks.

注释

i was wrong, they'll keep pushing it likely to 432. We'll see how the week ends. If we sell down Friday, bears have a shot at a move down to test the lows, but if not it will keep rallying. Weekly candle is currently bullish engulfing and if it stays that way it will be bullish. We are also over the 18 daily MA, bullish if it holds. Vix is getting a lift from support today but nothing to write home about.

注释

OK, well with AAPL down almost 4% after earnings, was that the top? Well I don't know for sure and I've missed the ball completely for two days so I'm not the best person to ask. On qqq there's this possible count. It could just be an A wave, with a pullback B next and a C into later November but I can't tell really right now. It does look like a bear market rally and corrective to me, but that could change tomorrow. Since I've been wrong lately, I'm taking a break from analysis until I feel more secure about it. I haven't read the comments so I apologize if I don't answer.

注释

if they get over this previous resistance it's bullish. I'm still bearish and I think this is the next move. Either way I will adjust my opinion if this area is retaken. GOod luck and have a great weekend!