SPX Can't Dance

2019年4月26日

• Based on the pattern beginning in December 2018 we should see a third ascending triangle.
  
• Normally breaching long-term support whilst failing a breakout results in a steep bear market. However, three consecutive triangles brings indecision from May to June 2019.
  
• Bear market until late September to early October 2019.
  
• Rapid leap back to the top of what now appears as a megaphone pattern; quickly break resistance. (exceptionally high volume?)
  
• Form a pennant with high bull bias.
  
• Repeat.
  
• Margin buyers win a free ticket to the poor house.
  

Core economic conditions are continuing to deteriorate while nations increasingly ramp up imperialistic behavior. Corporate and consumer economic behavior isn't declining to match the tougher conditions.

Reasons:

• cheap credit
  
• false post-QE confidence
  
• relaxed intranational banking regulations
  
• virtually no control exercised over most intranational corporate mergers
  

This isn't a sustainable economic model. Beginning of downturn expected 20/12/2020 ± 2 weeks.

NOT a repeat of the Great Depression; geopolitical conditions aren't severe enough.