3 reasons why I am not buying yet !
已更新
1. US covid-19 situation - President Trump is overly optimistic about this matter, saying he wants the country to reopen in April in line with Easter day. While his intention is good, he may not fully understand the situation that different states are experiencing.
Governor of New York is so desperate that he said be prepared to collect 26,000 bodies as they are sorely lacking in ventilators. VP Mike Pence is claiming they will send 2000 over to NY which is less than 10% of what is needed. The urgency is NOW, not 3 -6 months down the road. These patients cannot afford to wait, time is of essence here. The governor is infuriated !
2. Lockdown cities - full or partial has the serious implication to businesses. US need consumers to spend in order to get the economy up and running. If the cities are lockdown, how can they spend as freely as before? We already have an idea when the people of Wuhan , China were forced to stay in and kept at home, they spent mostly on entertainment like videos and daily groceries. Who has the mood to buy luxury goods, fashion wear, etc ? So, we can infer the people of US will do the same , more or less. Thus , businesses like F&B that are not in delivery will suffer, luxury goods will suffer, tour agencies, real estate agencies, events organisers, hotels, car rentals, etc will suffer. More importantly, we have yet to witness the peak of this Covid-19 in US so the implication of job losses and other collateral damages is too early to conclude now.
Watch tomorrow unemployment figures !! Unlike the Chinese, the Americans are spenders, not savers. So with little savings and limited cash handouts from the government, their stay afloat rate is low, very low. Many will be unemployed, retrenched ,etc . Stress will goes up , protest may takes place, one way or another.
3. Companies bailout - beside the airlines that are suffering ,there are many other businesses that are going belly under. They need huge funds to stay afloat, to pay wages and rental while having to face the reality of zero revenue coming in. It is a painful time for business owners. They have shallow pockets to dig into and many have utilised their own credit lines to halt the bleeding. The trillion dollar package that is now undergoing the Congress negotiation, will it be sufficient ? And if the cover-19 stretch for another 6 months or so, what is the government going to do ? Print more money , bail them out and get into more debts ?
It is probably the toughest time to be a President. Not just the US but every country ! So are the people, anxious, sleepless in every city, worried about kids, themselves, their work, money, healthy and the elderly folks.
So, the big picture is GDP figures is going to be bad, just a question of how bad it is. China is the first to recover and if their numbers turn out to be lesser than expected, we can use that as a guide for others who are dependent on China for business.
Thus, I am not convinced that this recovery is sustainable and would be only participating in intraday-long and shorts.
Governor of New York is so desperate that he said be prepared to collect 26,000 bodies as they are sorely lacking in ventilators. VP Mike Pence is claiming they will send 2000 over to NY which is less than 10% of what is needed. The urgency is NOW, not 3 -6 months down the road. These patients cannot afford to wait, time is of essence here. The governor is infuriated !
2. Lockdown cities - full or partial has the serious implication to businesses. US need consumers to spend in order to get the economy up and running. If the cities are lockdown, how can they spend as freely as before? We already have an idea when the people of Wuhan , China were forced to stay in and kept at home, they spent mostly on entertainment like videos and daily groceries. Who has the mood to buy luxury goods, fashion wear, etc ? So, we can infer the people of US will do the same , more or less. Thus , businesses like F&B that are not in delivery will suffer, luxury goods will suffer, tour agencies, real estate agencies, events organisers, hotels, car rentals, etc will suffer. More importantly, we have yet to witness the peak of this Covid-19 in US so the implication of job losses and other collateral damages is too early to conclude now.
Watch tomorrow unemployment figures !! Unlike the Chinese, the Americans are spenders, not savers. So with little savings and limited cash handouts from the government, their stay afloat rate is low, very low. Many will be unemployed, retrenched ,etc . Stress will goes up , protest may takes place, one way or another.
3. Companies bailout - beside the airlines that are suffering ,there are many other businesses that are going belly under. They need huge funds to stay afloat, to pay wages and rental while having to face the reality of zero revenue coming in. It is a painful time for business owners. They have shallow pockets to dig into and many have utilised their own credit lines to halt the bleeding. The trillion dollar package that is now undergoing the Congress negotiation, will it be sufficient ? And if the cover-19 stretch for another 6 months or so, what is the government going to do ? Print more money , bail them out and get into more debts ?
It is probably the toughest time to be a President. Not just the US but every country ! So are the people, anxious, sleepless in every city, worried about kids, themselves, their work, money, healthy and the elderly folks.
So, the big picture is GDP figures is going to be bad, just a question of how bad it is. China is the first to recover and if their numbers turn out to be lesser than expected, we can use that as a guide for others who are dependent on China for business.
Thus, I am not convinced that this recovery is sustainable and would be only participating in intraday-long and shorts.
注释
short commence, who's coming onboard ?注释
jobless claims data is tonight 830pm SIN time.注释
praise lord. those who shorted should be in profits. note that is some support at 2400 level or 2375. It might rebound before resuming its downward spiral especially when the news come at 830pm tonight Singapore time.注释
we were stopped out .注释
we entered last nite again at 2599 and out with a good profit. Praise Lord for his blessing and congrats to those who followed.
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