The rally since the low of 1833, which I had originally counted as a 4th wave, has now risen high enough that it prompts me to consider that it might be a 2nd wave. A 4th wave typically only retraces .382-.5 of the preceding 3rd wave, but here this 3-wave corrective structure has retraced more than 50% of the entire decline from the origin of wave 1 and is nearing the 61.8% mark -- which is more typical behavior of 2nd waves in general.
Now then, going back and examining more closely that sharp drop from the end of wave (2) down to 1833, I notice that the major section of it down to 1914 ends at a point roughly equal to 2.618 of the length of wave (1). It is typical for 3rd waves to be 1.618 the length of 1st waves, or even 2.618, 3.618, etc., within more powerful declines.
There is also divergence in the RSI reading which suggests that the above-mentioned 2.618 extension level is the extreme of the 3rd wave of that drop to 1833, and the subsequent (albeit very small) rise is the wave (4) followed by the final drop of wave (5) to 1833. That is because the RSI typically shows stronger for the 3rd wave relative to the 5th, even though the 5th wave exceeds the 3rd.
This could explain the upward depth of this corrective structure, which may be near completion. It would also suggest that wave 3 is imminent.
Now then, going back and examining more closely that sharp drop from the end of wave (2) down to 1833, I notice that the major section of it down to 1914 ends at a point roughly equal to 2.618 of the length of wave (1). It is typical for 3rd waves to be 1.618 the length of 1st waves, or even 2.618, 3.618, etc., within more powerful declines.
There is also divergence in the RSI reading which suggests that the above-mentioned 2.618 extension level is the extreme of the 3rd wave of that drop to 1833, and the subsequent (albeit very small) rise is the wave (4) followed by the final drop of wave (5) to 1833. That is because the RSI typically shows stronger for the 3rd wave relative to the 5th, even though the 5th wave exceeds the 3rd.
This could explain the upward depth of this corrective structure, which may be near completion. It would also suggest that wave 3 is imminent.