SP500 Daily Update

2015年4月13日

Here most classical TA would conclude that an upside breakout is about to occur.

Climbing to 2250 in the cone would be far too clean/perfect.

Although the bullish picture is still intact, I think it will fail.

Did SP500 stay high because it was strong or because it was above a support that climbed while Europe/Japan was strong? I think the latter.

Key level to break 2040.

Max vertical upside 2160 which is close and I think not likely.

1 – There is always a moment where the market needs to breath lower than the prevailing trading support. After 2 years this time has come.
2 – SP500 has just rallied for 6 months (check my email yesterday)
3 – There’s no more volatility juice after the volatility capitulation last week.
4 – Climbing to 2160 is just too obvious a short now.
5 – Other indices like DAX and Nikkei are probably on their top or 2% away from it with higher betas than SP500.
6 – I may be wrong but if SP500 had to climb higher, it would have done so earlier within the 6month window.

The lateral shift I am forecasting happened many times: Jan10, May10, Aug11, May12, Sep12, Jun13, Jan14, Oct14.