[Analysis] S&P 500 Post CPI Pain

2022年9月14日

You're highly encouraged to view the previous analysis

Yesterday's price action confirms that
1) 4200 resistance will not be broken anytime soon without a fundamental/macro driver
2) 4115 is the new hard resistance

Price is re-testing the previous low at 3900 but beware.
There is NO narrative for bull aside from "ShOrT SquZeezEEeee" and "Stock market is overreacting". Both of which are nonsense because

1) There are not many shorts this time round, at least compared to June. It's not enough to break 4115 much less 4200
2) There is no overreaction on the sell side. The rally was the overreaction. Yesterday's price action is just the market coming back down to where it should be.


In a short term, the trend is down. We also have two out-of-ordinary 3 Standard deviations sell down.



It is highly likely that the support at 3900 may be broken.

FOMC decision is coming up on 20 September. Given the MoM Inflation up by 0.1% despite low oil/gas prices, DESPITE the TWO ROUND OF 75 BPS hikes, do not expect Powell to rescue the market.