SPY Relief Rally Target

2020年3月26日

So it seems after the Federal Reserve promised to do unlimited Quantitative Easing as well as the passing of the congressional corona virus stimulus bill SPY and others such as DJI have pulled off a massive rally within this week. However I am sure this is nothing more than just dead cat bounce relief rally. I am looking to go short or buy some Puts in the anticipation that SPY will come back down and either create some sort of double bottom or even create a new low. But the question remains, what is the target for this relief rally? For me this target is a point of confluence. The area of 264 has multiple resistances. First is the .382 Fib retracement from the top of to bottom of this crash at 264. Second is the daily 21 EMA which is at 266. Third is the 200 week MA and 200 week EMA at 264 and 266. Finally the 264 area is a zone of support from Feb to May 2018 that will now likely flip to become resistance. There is no idea that is ever 100% certain, but this area is a major zone for a possible end to this rally and I will be looking to taking this trade as I consider it to be low risk. If this zone doesn't act as resistance it will be easy to recognize and I will then close this position at a small loss.

2020年4月2日

注释

And it turns out that the resistance was respected perfectly! I'm happy to say that this afternoon I closed some of my puts and congrats to all those who agreed with me. Now I have limited my exposure in anticipation of the next play.
So if 263 is confirmed as the local top the question remains, "Where will see the next bottom?"
To answer this question I anticipate three possible scenarios. The most likely of which is I expect to see some sort of double bottom, but we can also see a lower low or even a higher low. I anticipate some sideways action, but eventually we will get some clarity. I will come back with a possible long play in the coming days. In the meantime I will keep my eye out for some bullish divergence to form on at least the 4hr RSI and MACD. Until then good luck all and RESPECT the FIB levels!